Enough Debate about the AI Jobpocalypse. We Need To Plan for the Messy Middle.

It feels like we’re stuck in an endless debate about what AI is going to mean for jobs and the economy. The prediction you hear from the people closest to the technology — both its critics and its boosters — is that mass automation is coming, and with it mass unemployment. In response, some AI CEOs are promising a post-labor Golden Age of abundance and universal high income. But you also hear from some techno-optimists and economists that AI will create more jobs than it destroys and that society’s fears are unjustified. When these arguments are traded back and forth, no one can know what’s actually true, and nothing happens. And caught in the middle of this debate are actual workers trying to figure out what this means for their family and themselves, or whether their kids should go to college. And as long as that debate stays alive, nobody plans or takes action ahead of what’s coming. So this week on Your Undivided Attention, rather than continuing to referee this debate, we follow the incentives and show you where they’re actually taking us in the very near future. Our guest, economist Molly Kinder, argues that we’re entering what she calls the “messy middle”: a period of concentrated and uneven workforce disruption. She has evidence-based arguments about where, specifically, AI will affect the labor force, what the second and third-order consequences of those effects might be, and what we need to do today to protect people’s livelihoods. Molly recently left her position as a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution to become the founding CEO of a new organization dedicated to addressing AI’s impact on jobs. Her Substack, Kinder Futures: Dispatches on AI, Work & What Comes Next, features some of the clearest-eyed analysis of AI’s impact on the economy.RECOMMENDED MEDIA Kinder Futures: Dispatches on AI, Work & What Comes Next (Molly’s Substack) Molly’s blog posts at Brookings The Yale Budget Lab’s AI Labor Market Tracker RECOMMENDED YUA EPISODES AI and the Future of Work: What You Need to Know Is AI Productivity Worth Our Humanity? with Prof. Michael Sandel AI and Jobs: How to Make AI Work With Us, Not Against Us with Daron Acemoglu   Corrections Molly incorrectly referred to cuts to “Medicare for the neediest populations.” The cuts she describes are to Medicaid. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.