EP.006: NVDA: Understanding the Bear Case

Episode 6 of the Pitch The PM podcast, hosted by PitchThePM, titled "EP.006: NVDA: Understanding the Bear Case" was published on May 15, 2025 and runs 58 minutes.

May 15, 2025 ·58m · Pitch The PM

Summary

Pitch The PM Live Doug Garber breaks down his thesis on the future of NVIDIA using his Variant View checklist. He draws on insights from his recent episode with Gil Luria and incorporates real-time analytics from our show sponsors 5 key points discussed:✅ Customer capex from a couple Big Tech customers is flattening out sequentially and that should make it hard for NVDA to continue to beat already high expectations for +$4B of QoQ revenue growth. The debate is how much will others absorb?✅ The S+D for GPU's is already seeing PRICING pressure in the rent by the hour market - the canary in the coal mine?✅ Increased competition from customer chips and Chinese chips should erode market share and margins in the medium-term✅ The underlying GPU customer economics appear unsupported by returns and are being driven by an "Arms Race" mentality that could become fragile with declining stock prices recently✅ The reduced NVDA valuation implies some bad news is being discounted. We use a reverse-DCF to dig-in here.— — — —Thanks to FinTool and InSync Analytics for sponsoring this webinar. Use this link to access a complimentary free trial: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=pitchthePM📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe— — — —Chapters:00:00 – Introduction & Webinar Overview02:15 – Doug Garber’s Background & Investment Philosophy05:40 – NVIDIA's Position, Management Signals, & Investment Framework09:00 – Bull vs. Bear: Framing the Debate on NVDA20:15 – Supply, Demand, and Competitive Landscape31:05 – Market Expectations, Pricing Trends & Cyclical Risks41:00 – Capital Allocation, Big Tech CapEx & Future Catalysts57:50 – Q&A: On Shorts, CapEx, Demand Cycles & More— — — —▶️ MORE EPISODES:NVDA: As Good As It Gets https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlMPOOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0sZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnucBNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGxFollow Pitch The PM:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pitch-the-pmX: https://x.com/PitchThePMYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PitchThePM— — — —Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com

Episode Description