Ep. 103: Nuclear escalation; UNGA meetings; Track 1.5s

Ukraine has made significant battlefield gains in the past month, changing the dynamics of the Russian invasion, leading to a partial Russian troop mobilisation and threats by Vladimir Putin of tactical nuclear weapons use. Allan and Darren talk through these dynamics, in particular Putin’s decision-making calculus and what the rest of the world must do to deter nuclear escalation, including the uncomfortable possibility that NATO’s interests and  Ukraine’s interests could diverge in the future. FM Penny Wong led the Australian delegation to the United National General Assembly Meetings in New York. Allan and Darren begin with the welcoming speech of Secretary General António Guterres, discussing whether the office of the SG and the UN remain relevant in the current fractured geopolitical landscape. Then they turn to Australia’s statement to UNGA, delivered by Penny Wong, and how it was similar to, and different from, previous statements in recent years. One notable focus this year was on First Nations Australians. Finally, having recently participated in a “Track 1.5” dialogue, Allan reflects on the purpose and function of this type of diplomacy. We thank Atikah Mekki for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.  Relevant links “Read Putin’s national address on a partial military mobilization”, Washington Post, 21 September 2022: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/21/putin-speech-russia-ukraine-war-mobilization/  Gideon Rachman, “Putin’s nuclear threats cannot be ignored”, Financial Times, 26  September 2022: https://www.ft.com/content/25862f8d-d6de-48c7-a892-091e5f909734 Rohan Mukherjee, “China and India weren’t critical of Putin’s war. Did that change?”,  Washington Post, 26 September 2022:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/26/putin-ukraine-china-india-xi-modi/ António Guterres, Secretary-General's address to the General Assembly, 20 September 2022: https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2022-09-20/secretary-generals-address-the-general-assembly Mark Beeson, “Guterres whistles in the wind”, Lowy Interpreter, 21 September 2022:  https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/guterres-whistles-wind Penny Wong, National Statement to the UN General Assembly, New York, 23 September 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/statements/national-statement-un-general-assembly-new-york  Julie Bishop, Australia's National Statement - United Nations General Assembly, 22 September 2017: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/julie-bishop/speech/australias-national-statement-united-nations-general-assembly  Marise Payne, National Statement - United Nations General Assembly, 28 September 2018: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/speech/national-statement-united-nations-general-assembly Quarterly Essay, “Uncivil wars”, QE 87, September 2022:  https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2022/09/uncivil-wars “On The Air with Gerry Anderson: Hypno Hen” (youtube):  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TOR895yhIw