EPISODE · Jul 28, 2026 · 23 MIN
Ep. 113: The Rotation Widens — Value, REITs, and the International Dividend Trade of 2026
from Informed Investing · host Informed Investing
6 sources on one throughline — the 2026 rotation has WIDENED beyond 'tech sold off': value stocks, high-dividend funds, the Dividend Kings, and REITs are ALL beating the S&P this year, and international dividends may be the next leg as new tariffs reshape the map. (1) VYM (Vanguard High Dividend Yield) beating the S&P by ~3pp YTD — 600+ stocks, 2.3% yield, 0.04% ER, forward P/E 16 vs 23 for VOO; energy+industrials ~24%, tech only ~15%; value outperforming by 6+ pts; three tailwinds (no Fed cuts, sticky inflation, tariffs pressuring high-multiple tech). (2) Dividend Kings (50+yr raisers) up 13.78% YTD vs S&P 8.95%; top: GRC +72%, NUE +53%, ADM +52%; 21 names undervalued by Dividend Yield Theory with >10% est. return (LOW, PEP, ABT, SWK, SPGI...); highest est. returns SCL 29.5%, NUE 25%, ABBV 19.9%. (3) REITs (Hoya Capital/David Auerbach part 2): 55 REITs RAISED vs 6 cut this year, payout under 75% FFO (below long-run avg), broadly undervalued on price-to-FFO, mid-cap the sweet spot; Realty Income expanding into gaming/data-centers/Bellagio; senior housing + manufactured housing + SFR the best supply-demand setups; public-vs-private REIT tradeoffs. (4) International dividend ETFs as a tariff hedge (new tariffs on 60 partners, 10-12.5%): XIDV (large/mid intl dividend), DLS (intl small-cap dividend), ADVE (active Asia dividend). (5) Oracle as a quality-over-yield case with an asterisk: ~1.4% yield, 34% payout, +25% latest hike, but net debt ~31B, ~4.4x leverage, BBB- (one notch above junk, downgraded July 9), FCF NEGATIVE ~-3.7B from AI capex. (6) 5 enhanced-income ETFs (YYY 13% CEF basket, OVL 10.5% put-overlay, IDVO ~6% intl covered-call, Q6/QDEL index-multiplier funds) as the 'manufactured yield' caution — satellite, judged on total return not distribution rate. Recurring lesson: a dividend is only as good as the total return and business behind it — separate durable income from manufactured yield with payout coverage, price-to-FFO, and dividend yield theory. Dropped 2 Cloudflare-blocked sources (ainvest FLLA, 247wallst midstream).
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Ep. 113: The Rotation Widens — Value, REITs, and the International Dividend Trade of 2026
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