Ep.115 | Fix & Flips in 2026: Market Reality, Risk, and Where the Opportunities Actually Are

Welcome back to Episode 115 of the Canadian Private Lenders Podcast!Ryan and Neal kick off 2026 by breaking down what fix-and-flip investing really looks like in today’s more balanced Canadian real estate market. With buyer behavior shifting, inventory rising, and exits becoming less predictable, this episode dives into where opportunities still exist, and where lenders and investors need to be far more conservative.The conversation covers real-world market conditions in Halifax, the GTA, and Calgary, how underwriting standards should evolve in 2026, and why making money on the buy, not the market,  matters more than ever.Whether you’re a private lender, broker, or active real estate investor, this episode is a practical reset on risk, expectations, and disciplined deal analysis for the year ahead.Show Notes:00:00 – Welcome to Episode 115 & kicking off 202602:18 – Are fix & flips “back” in 2026? Setting the stage03:54 – Halifax market update: inventory, pricing & buyer behavior05:09 – Sold-to-list ratios signal a shift to a balanced market07:11 – Where fix-and-flip opportunities are re-emerging on the buy side09:27 – Off-market deals: what’s happening and where they still exist11:38 – The biggest risk in 2026: uncertain exits & longer hold times14:21 – Why cosmetic flips no longer work without real value-add16:43 – Lender perspective: cutting losses before deals go sideways17:03 – GTA market overview: nuance, sub-markets & investor vs end-user demand18:34 – Why investment-grade properties are getting hit harder than single-family homes23:45 – Calgary market insights: pricing, build costs & borrower strength29:41 – Private lending structures: LTVs, draws, reserves & holdbacks33:55 – Underwriting checklist: ARVs, contingencies & exit strategies36:10 – Real Halifax case study: tight margins and stress-testing returns38:19 – Final takeaways: disciplined underwriting wins in 2026Resources:Keystone Capital GroupCPLP Instagram: @cplpodcastKeystone Instagram: @keycapgroupFind Neal On:Instagram: @neal.andreinoLinkedIn: Neal AndreinoFind Ryan on:LinkedIn: Ryan MacNeilE-mail: [email protected]