Ep.13: Aerosols and climate sensitivity: what accelerated warming tells us about the future

In this episode we dig deeper into the dynamics that cause the accelerated warming, by examining the rules and factors that govern the global tug-of-war between greenhouse gases and aerosols. On the way we learn about the notion of climate sensitivity and how the IPCC has been systematically underestimating and underplaying the risks that we face. In the Offering section we learn how to avoid being overwhelmed by all this info, not by looking away, but by reorienting our attention to the living world around us.  Timestamps 00:30 [Infospill] The tug-of-war between aerosols & GHGs and how the IPCC underestimates climate sensitivity 39:55 [Offering] Feeling overwhelmed? An invitation to (re)connect [Infospill] The tug-of-war between aerosols & GHGs and how the IPCC underestimates climate sensitivity According to Hansen et al., aerosols seem the most likely culprit behind the accelerated warming of the last decades. This scenario implies that the IPCC has been underestimating the cooling effect of aerosols and the warming potential of greenhouse gases all along. We explore what this means for the climate and our collective future. [Offering] Feeling overwhelmed? An invitation to (re)connect Taking in a lot of terrible news, including climate science, can be daunting. As Sara Ahmed argues, emotions are not private states, but they have a political dimension, shaping our bodies by what we pay attention to and shaping how we grow. So, this is an invitation to confront this overwhelming feeling by reorienting attention and tuning in to the more-than-human life around us.  Main reference Van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., 2024. Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Science advances, 10(6), p.eadk1189 Other resources: S Rahmstorf. Our heating system is heading for shutdown. ATLAS25 talk (2025). G Monbiot. A catastrophic climate event is upon us. Here is why you've heard so little about it. The Guardian (2026) V Portmann et al. Observational constrains project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century. Science Advances 12 (2026) S Drijhout et al. Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections. Environmental Research Letters 20 (2025). Sara Ahmed - The Cultural Politics of Emotions (book) Nick Montgomery and carla bergman - Joyful Militancy. Building Thriving Resistance in Toxic Times (book) - Hosted & Edited by: Robi & Ani Sound engineering by: Marius Montage: Ioni Theme music: Teo Graphic artist & illustrator: Mina Social media: Grc - If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon https://www.patreon.com/cw/thelastfireflies or with a one time donation on ko-fi https://ko-fi.com/thelastfireflies