EP 148: Simulation Is Not Estimation - rethinking uncertainty in mining

In this episode of Fresh Thinking, Ian Glacken (Executive Consultant) and Dr Gregory Zhang (Senior Consultant) discuss one of the most important topics in modern resource modelling: uncertainty. From the long-standing debate of simulation vs estimation, to the growing focus on geological uncertainty and hierarchical truncated plurigaussian simulation, this episode explores where the mining industry stands — and where it still needs to improve. ⏱ Key Topics 00:00 – Introduction: Simulation in mining and why uncertainty matters 01:18 – Simulation vs estimation: what's the real difference? 02:16 – The "space of uncertainty": grade, geology, parameters and planning 03:34 – Are we misleading stakeholders by ignoring uncertainty? 05:34 – Has grade uncertainty been solved? Two-point vs multipoint simulation 06:39 – Data uncertainty: blast holes, nugget effect and sampling quality 07:30 – Parameter uncertainty and spatial bootstrapping 09:43 – Geological uncertainty: why it's fundamentally different 10:44 – Plurigaussian and hierarchical truncated plurigaussian simulation (HTPGS) 12:51 – Industry adoption and emerging trends 13:08 – The "holy grail" of a comprehensive uncertainty model 14:47 – Digital twins and the future of integrated uncertainty modelling 👍If you enjoyed this discussion, please Subscribe to Fresh Thinking wherever you listen to podcasts, for more mining-focused technical discussions across the mine value chain. If you would like to contact Ian Glacken and Dr Gregory Zhang: [email protected] Listen on the go: Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro is rapidly becoming the best mining podcast globally, and is available on all major podcast platforms. It is also available in video format on Snowden Optiro's YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/-DnskmSDnn4 Snowden Optiro: Snowden Optiro is a resources consulting and advisory group that provides independent advice, consulting and training to mining and exploration companies, their advisors and investors. We help mine developers to advance their projects, mining companies to improve their operations and their professionals, and investors to de-risk their investments by the provision of quality advice, training and software in the field of Mineral Resources and Mineral/Ore Reserves. Explore more: https://snowdenoptiro.com/ #Mining #ResourceModelling #Geostatistics #Simulation #Geology #MiningEngineering