EP 157: Euro Pressure, Pine Pivots & A Flattening Curve

This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market. Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium? Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think. We also dig into the flattening futures curve, what that means for hedgers, whether Southern Pine mills are actually making money, and why a flat market might cause the most pain. If you trade lumber, build with it, or hedge it — this one matters. Timestamps 00:00 – Market pulse: Spruce, Pine & truck spreads 06:30 – Southern Pine block buying & 16’ pricing 10:00 – Europe shipments, tariffs & rising log costs 17:30 – Western market: low-grade squeeze 21:30 – Housing starts & real wood usage math 27:00 – Canadian shipment declines 31:00 – Futures flattening: what it means 35:30 – Mill closures & Southern Pine profitability 40:00 – Softwood Lumber Board & CLT demand growth 45:00 – Tariff ruling update & market outlook     Advertiser: Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Product [email protected] www.fastmarkets.com Guest: Thomas Mende [email protected] https://www.binderholz.com/   Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: [email protected] Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected] Matt Beymer: [email protected] Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]