EP 159: The Fog of War

The lumber market is deep in the **fog of war**. Freight is tightening, trucking rates are jumping, and species spreads are shifting fast. In Episode #159, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down why flatbed capacity is suddenly scarce, how Southern Yellow Pine is catching a bid while eastern spruce softens, and what heavy Doug Fir production in the West could mean for the market. The crew also tackles the big question: **where is the missing demand?** Canadian shipments are down, production is lower across North America, yet prices haven’t fully reacted. Are buyers simply running leaner inventories and buying lumber just‑in‑time? If you buy, sell, trade, or build with lumber, this episode helps you navigate freight disruptions, changing buying habits, and the real supply‑and‑demand signals shaping the 2026 lumber market. Chapters 0:00 – The Fog of War in the lumber market 1:00 – Trucking shortages and rising freight costs 6:30 – Why freight tightens every spring 12:30 – Futures vs. cash lumber pricing 16:00 – Doug Fir, spruce, and pine market dynamics 20:00 – Southern Yellow Pine strength 24:00 – Just‑in‑time lumber buying 27:00 – Lumber price outlook 30:00 – Mortgage rates and housing demand 33:00 – Western supply shifts 36:30 – Final market takeaways     Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products [email protected] www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: [email protected] Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected] Matt Beymer: [email protected] Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]