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EP.16: 给判断力定价，为什么预测市场又火了？

EPISODE · Nov 9, 2025 · 1H 11M

EP.16: 给判断力定价，为什么预测市场又火了？

随着美国监管环境的宽松，预测市场 (Prediction Market) —— 这个曾经影响 2024 美国大选走势的新模式，在 2025 年又火了，Polymarket 和 Kalshi 双寡头纷纷完成巨额融资。美国总统特朗普家族也宣称要进入这个行业，作为其传媒集团的一个重要业务补充。本期播客，我邀请了 Leo 和 Tykoo 两位预测市场的参与者、投资人，来一起聊聊，预测市场到底有何魔力，这个赛道的过去、市场现状和未来机会有哪些？感谢硬件钱包 OneKey 对这期播客的赞助。OneKey 是一款开源的、自托管的硬件钱包，同时得到了 Coinbase 和币安的投资，也是我自己主要使用的钱包。区块链是一个黑暗森林，正确使用硬件钱包可以最大程度保护你的链上资产安全。购买时输入折扣码「Sea」可享 95 折优惠，点击购买。特此说明：讨论中所提到的任何项目及 token，都不构成投资建议，...去小宇宙查看完整单集简介在小宇宙查看该单集文稿

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EP.16: 给判断力定价，为什么预测市场又火了？

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How long is this episode of Sea Talk?

This episode is 1 hour and 11 minutes long.

When was this Sea Talk episode published?

This episode was published on November 9, 2025.

What is this episode about?

随着美国监管环境的宽松，预测市场 (Prediction Market) —— 这个曾经影响 2024 美国大选走势的新模式，在 2025 年又火了，Polymarket 和 Kalshi 双寡头纷纷完成巨额融资。美国总统特朗普家族也宣称要进入这个行业，作为其传媒集团的一个重要业务补充。本期播客，我邀请了 Leo 和 Tykoo 两位预测市场的参与者、投资人，来一起聊聊，预测市场到底有何魔力，这个赛道的过去、市场现状和未来机会有哪些？感谢硬件钱包 OneKey 对这期播客的赞助。OneKey...

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