EP 167: Is Lumber Quietly Setting Up for Another Bull Run?

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down one of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze? Timeline 0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active 3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species 6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy 10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish 15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply 20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate 27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business 33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products [email protected] www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: [email protected] Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected] Matt Beymer: [email protected] Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]   ne of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze? Timeline 0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active 3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species 6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy 10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish 15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply 20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate 27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business 33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products [email protected] www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: [email protected] Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected] Matt Beymer: [email protected] Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]