EP 171: The Bull Market Nobody Believes In (Yet)

The lumber market may be sending its clearest signal of 2026: supply is shrinking, inventories are lean, and futures are leading the charge higher. In Episode 171, the crew welcomes industry veteran Kip Fotheringham for a deep dive into the forces reshaping North American lumber markets. From tightening SPF supply and Southern Yellow Pine transportation challenges to Canadian curtailments, futures fund short covering, and the surprising resilience of housing demand, the group lays out the bullish case that's beginning to unfold. They debate whether we're in the first inning or the third inning of a larger rally, examine why major funds are potentially abandoning short positions, and discuss how shrinking production capacity could collide with steady demand to create a much tighter market through the summer. The conversation also explores Berkshire Hathaway's investment in homebuilding, multifamily construction strength, pulp mill closures, fiber supply challenges, and the Longview explosion's potential impact on Western sawmill production. If you're a lumber buyer, trader, mill operator, or builder, this episode offers a roadmap to the risks—and opportunities—developing beneath the surface of today's market. Timeline 00:00 – Lumber, Airports & Industry Reach Portland Airport gets a surprising shoutout, and the crew shares a story highlighting how The Lumber Word continues to influence industry conversations. 03:30 – Are We Early in a Bull Market? The panel debates whether the lumber rally is just getting started and what buyers should be doing right now. 07:00 – Transportation Becomes the Story Escalating trucking costs and regional supply constraints are changing how lumber moves across North America. 09:00 – Canada's Supply Problem Gets Real Discussion on curtailments, mill economics, and why North American production continues to shrink. 15:00 – Why This Summer Feels Different The crew explains why inventory positions, contract reductions, and tariff pressures have created an unusual setup. 22:00 – The Longview Explosion & Fiber Fallout A major disruption in the Pacific Northwest raises new questions about residual markets and future sawmill production. 25:00 – Smart Money is Buying Housing Berkshire Hathaway, Japanese investors, and multifamily construction all point toward longer-term confidence in housing demand. 30:00 – Funds Are Covering Shorts Kip breaks down what the futures market is signaling and why short-covering could fuel a larger move higher. 35:00 – What Could Derail the Rally? The group examines the biggest risks to their bullish outlook and what buyers should watch over the next 30 days. 44:00 – Final Take: Bullish Until Proven Otherwise The episode wraps with a discussion on shrinking supply, steady demand, and why the market's biggest surprise may still be ahead. Guest: Kip Fotheringham Lumber Trader and Market Expert [email protected]   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager [email protected] www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: [email protected] Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected] Matt Beymer: [email protected] Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]