EP 182: The Lumber Market Is Strongly Sideways

The lumber market is moving plenty of volume—but not necessarily going anywhere. This week, Ashley, Gregg and Charles are joined by Bart Charles to break down a market that is strongly sideways. The crew digs into Spruce, Hem-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine, the growing opportunity in forward pricing, tight supply in key items, and why getting aggressively long or short could be a mistake right now. With futures offering opportunities to lock in Q1 business, limited production keeping a floor under prices, and housing demand still fighting affordability, the question becomes: Where is the next real opportunity in lumber? Timeline 00:00 Bart Charles joins the show 01:49 Housing, existing-home inventory & demand 04:18 Is the lumber market “strongly sideways”? 06:19 Coastal Hem-Fir vs. Inland pricing 09:52 Breaking down Hem-Fir and Spruce 13:54 Southern Yellow Pine market update 15:13 Diesel prices, trucking & freight costs 17:03 Where does the lumber market go from here? 19:24 Gregg: The market is “sharply sideways” 21:05 Forward pricing & futures opportunities 23:01 Are buyers willing to pay Q1 premiums? 29:48 Supply reductions, demand & price risk 31:25 Mortgage rates and housing affordability 32:33 Tight inventory and replacement costs 34:28 Are traders still short lumber? 35:09 Short opportunities in Southern Pine 37:03 “Sharply Sideways” becomes the episode theme 39:33 Why getting too long—or too short—could hurt 39:51 Locking in Q1 margins 40:15 Why there’s no good inventory hedge right now 41:12 The “O’Hare Hedge” Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager [email protected] www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: [email protected] Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected] Matt Beymer: [email protected] Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected] Guest Bart Charles [email protected]