Ep.210: Waiting for the shoe to drop on Iran

The main question to be asked about President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is not the immediate one about whether or when the United States will attack Iran, important though that may be. Rather, says JNS editor-in-chief Jonathan Tobin, it’s understanding that, his critics’ claims notwithstanding, far from being isolationist, Trump’s approach is one of selective use of force only when he perceives it to be in America’s direct interest.   Tobin is joined in this week’s episode of Think Twice by veteran diplomat and Tikvah Fund head Elliott Abrams. He believes that a negotiated deal between the United States and Iran that might prevent a military conflict are highly unlikely. Abrams asserts that after the severe losses they suffered during last year’s 12-day war on Iran by Israel and the United States, Trump thought Tehran understood that it was in no position to avoid making real concessions on its nuclear program and other issues. But the Iranians clearly are more worried about looking weak in the eyes of its restive population.   The Islamists are also, Abrams says, much like the Palestinians in their thinking about the conflict. They believe that demonstrating their willingness to be steadfast and continue the war against the U.S. and Israel is vital to maintaining their ideological purpose despite it not being in their interest to do so.   On the other hand, Abrams points out that a failure on Trump’s part in following through on his threats against Iran and his promise of help to the Iranian people will have serious consequences for U.S. foreign policy. Trump, too, cannot afford to look weak in the eyes of America’s adversaries.   As for the situation in Gaza in the aftermath of the cease-fire that ended the post-Oct. 7 war on Hamas, Abrams says that Trump’s Board of Peace is “frankly absurd” and “won’t achieve anything.” The situation in which Hamas continues to dig in and strengthen its military position in the portion of Gaza it still controls while Israel attacks and seeks to weaken the Islamists will likely continue until, probably after the next election, Jerusalem decides that it can no longer tolerate a Hamas state in Gaza, even if it is smaller than the one that existed prior to Oct. 7 and not as militarily strong.   Abrams also discussed the surge in antisemitism in the United States, particularly on the right. He said President Trump and Vice President JD Vance are in a position to do something about it. The question is whether they will. Meanwhile, the Tikvah Fund leader said that American Jewry should concentrate more on strengthening their own community than on playing defense against antisemites.