Ep 27 | The $9 Billion Bet on Vermont | How Rob Lair Is Building the Anti-Silicon Valley

Powered by HqO - Learn more and join the Quantum City Initiative here: https://www.hqo.com/the-future-of-cities-begins-now/   We've been talking about what makes a quantum city for a while now. Rob is in the middle of building one. Rob Lair, co-founder of Hula Lakeside Investments, joined us this week and the conversation took on a life of its own.    Eight years ago, Rob and his partner Russ Scully converted a vacant oven factory in Burlington, Vermont into what is now 150,000 square feet of coworking infrastructure — and layered on top of it a venture fund, a 100-investor network, and a thesis that private capital deployed by people who love their community is the most powerful force in economic development. Their portfolio grew from a combined $400 million in market cap to over $9 billion. One of their companies, Beta Technologies, just IPO'd at $7.5 billion. Their founder was Rob's neighbor.   The thread that ran through the entire conversation was leadership — specifically, the idea that GDP growth and business formation don't come from government or institutions. They come from private capital with a long time horizon and a genuine connection to place. Everything else, including housing, childcare, the zoning reform, follows from that.   In this episode: The Hula model: How bricks-and-mortar infrastructure that cash-flows at a 7% cap, combined with a community investment arm, produces something WeWork never figured out Place-based investing as a real edge: Why knowing your founders as neighbors — not as deal flow — is a structural advantage no coastal fund can replicate Why housing has to come first: Hula is breaking ground on 1,400 residential units in July because economic development without housing is, in Rob's words, a waste of time The CRE opportunity in tier 2 cities: Rob's practical framework for how a developer should be mapping capital formation and startup momentum as forward demand signals — not looking at comp supply Venture math and the right time horizon: Why failure is part of the economic development, why the PayPal Mafia effect is the whole point, and why a 10-year minimum clock is non-negotiable Appraisals are two decades behind: Banks are underwriting major projects with backwards-looking market studies while the data to do it properly already exists. Rob makes the case for what this should look like in an AI era State of venture in 2025: The post-pandemic recovery, IPO windows opening and closing, and why Rob won't accept that place-based investing means lower returns The next cities to watch: Portland, Maine is Rob's top pick. Boulder, Colorado is second. And none of this, he argues, is a zero-sum game with the tier one markets   Rob, thank you for joining us. This was one of those conversations we'll be thinking about for a while. TIMESTAMPS: 01:19 Rob’s Origin Story 04:19 Building Hula’s Engine 07:36 Can Burlington Scale 13:37 What Cities Need 17:02 Winning Over Government 19:23 Venture Time Horizons 28:15 Place Based Capital 30:59 CRE Future Challenge 32:04 Capital Flows Forecasting 33:15 Hula Model Spreading 34:22 Placemaking Beats Backward Data 36:22 AI Underwriting Heatmaps 39:31 Designing For Company Lifecycle 42:32 State Of Venture Today 47:43 Alts And Capital Allocation 49:56 Smart City Data Vision 54:12 Rapid Fire City Metrics 56:14 AI Prompting Workflow Sponsored by HqO — the leading tenant experience platform for commercial real estate.