Ep 412: Beware: Commercial property values look stretched

Read Full Blog Here Pre- Order Wealth By Design Here Commercial property is being actively promoted as a compelling alternative to residential investment, particularly as higher interest rates reduce borrowing capacity and tighter tenancy laws make residential property less attractive. On the surface, the pitch is appealing: higher rental yields, tenants paying most outgoings, and the potential for capital growth. But in Stuart's assessment, current valuations make the risk hard to justify. This episode examines commercial property through a valuation lens, explaining how cap rates work, why current pricing looks stretched relative to historical norms, and how the spread between commercial yields and the 10-year government bond rate has compressed to levels last seen before the GFC. At recent auction prices, some properties are selling on cap rates below the risk-free rate, meaning investors are accepting less income than a government bond while taking on substantially more risk. The analysis models what happens to investor equity if cap rates revert toward their long-term average of 3.5% to 4.5% above the bond rate. The results are stark: at 70% leverage, a reversion to historical norms could wipe out most or all of an investor's equity. Stuart also explores why cap rates have stayed compressed despite rising bond yields, and why the structural forces holding valuations up may not last. Commercial property can be an excellent investment, but only at the right price. Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X Run your own business? Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/ Our most popular free guides: Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes. Download them here Got a question for the podcast? Email us at [email protected] Subscribe to my weekly blog: Stay connected here Important This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.