Ep 417: Upgrade your home or invest in shares? The numbers surprised me.

Read Full Blog HerePre-order Wealth by Design HereFor decades, negative gearing tipped the scales toward borrowing for an investment property over spending more on your home; investment interest was deductible, home loan interest wasn't. But with negative gearing quarantined and the effective capital gains tax rate climbing from around 20% to closer to 30–35% under the post-2027 indexation regime, that old comparison is dead. In this episode, Stuart rebuilds it from scratch.The new contest: is a high-income household better off borrowing to upgrade the family home, or borrowing to invest in shares? He models two households starting identically, same income, same $1 million of extra debt, same 18-year repayment, and the result genuinely surprised him. Over 10 years, geared shares edge ahead; over 20, it's a dead heat; over 30, the bigger home wins. The reason is tax leakage: once the debt is repaid, the share portfolio's deductible interest shield vanishes while the home keeps compounding tax-free.Stuart also walks through six things the model can't capture: liquidity, the willingness to downsize, home growth quality, lifestyle, and explains why, with these settings still politically contested, the smartest move may be to preserve optionality and reassess in 12 to 18 months.Our most popular free guides:Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.Download them hereMy new book, Wealth by Design, is out now:Buy online or in bookstores. The ebook is available now, audiobook coming soon.Got a question for the podcast?Email us at [email protected] in working with our team?Discover how we can work togetherSubscribe to my weekly blog:Stay connected hereImportantThis podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.