Ep. 93: The invasion of Ukraine and updating priors

With the world watching in shock at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Allan and Darren describe how the crisis, and in particular the world’s response, are (and are not) causing them to reconsider their priors about how politics and international affairs works. Allan describes how impressed he has been with Europe’s response, while Darren is completely surprised at the speed and magnitude of the economic and financial sanctions imposed on Russia, in particular its central bank. Meanwhile, Allan reflects on the contingency of the Biden presidency, wondering how things would have been different had Donald Trump been president and what that says about the variability of the United States as a factor in world politics. Darren considers the responses of regional powers such as China, India and the ASEAN countries. Finally, they discuss early implications for Australia. Relevant links Anne Applebaum, “The impossible suddenly became possible”, The Atlantic, 2 March 2022: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/ China Talk (podcast), “The new old cold war with Tooze and Klein”, 1 March 2022: https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/the-new-old-cold-war-with-tooze-and?s=r Adam Tooze, “Chartbook #89 Russia’s financial meltdown and the global dollar system”, 28 February 2022: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-89-russias-financial-meltdown?s=r Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye (1987) “Power and interdependence revisited”, International Organization 41(4): 725-753. http://www.rochelleterman.com/ir/sites/default/files/Keohane%20Nye%201987.pdf Patrick McKenzie, “Moving money internationally”, Bits about money (newsletter), 2 March 2022: https://bam.kalzumeus.com/archive/moving-money-internationally/ Paul Kelly, “Morrison’s Mission: A Lowy Institute Paper”, Penguin Specials, February 2022: https://www.penguin.com.au/books/morrisons-mission-a-lowy-institute-paper-penguin-special-9780143778042 The Ezra Klein Show, “Can the West stop Russia by strangling its economy (with Adam Tooze), 1 March 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-adam-tooze.html