Ep. 97 - Deterring War with China: Taiwan Strategy & U.S. Power w/Eyck Freymann

Taiwan is often framed as a binary choice: surrender it to China or risk World War III. But is that really the full picture? In this episode of The China Desk, host Steve Yates is joined by Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, to break down a more realistic — and more strategic — approach to one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world today. Freymann explains why the traditional debate around Taiwan is deeply flawed, arguing that the real challenge is not choosing between peace and war, but building a credible strategy that prevents conflict altogether while protecting core U.S. interests. Drawing from his research and global experience, Freymann outlines how the Chinese Communist Party approaches power differently than Western governments — integrating military, economic, technological, and political tools into a single, coordinated strategy. He argues that the United States must respond in kind, or risk being outmaneuvered without a shot being fired. A central focus of the conversation is deterrence — and why military strength alone is no longer enough. Freymann lays out a broader framework that includes political alignment, technological leadership, economic strategy, and alliance coordination as essential pillars for preventing conflict. The conversation also covers: • Why Taiwan is the “keystone” in China’s global ambitions • The difference between the Chinese people and the CCP • How China uses gray-zone tactics short of war (quarantine, coercion) • Why military deterrence alone is no longer sufficient • The role of alliances in shaping China’s decision-making • How AI and semiconductor dominance factor into national security • Why U.S. technological leadership is critical to deterrence • The risks of economic “mutually assured destruction” with China • What “avalanche decoupling” means — and why gradual separation matters • How global perception and international opinion shape outcomes • The importance of preparing for a post-crisis global order Freymann also challenges the assumption that economic interdependence will prevent conflict, warning that it may actually deter the United States more than China if policymakers are unprepared for the consequences of escalation. The discussion ultimately points to a narrow but critical path forward: maintaining deterrence through strength, coordination, and strategic clarity — while avoiding unnecessary provocation that could accelerate conflict. 00:00 — Intro + Eyck Freymann joins the China Desk 00:31 — Background, education, and early interest in China 03:15 — First-hand experience in China and CCP vs Chinese people 08:05 — How the CCP approaches strategy and power differently 09:48 — The flawed “war vs surrender” Taiwan debate 11:47 — Why Freymann wrote Defending Taiwan 13:49 — U.S. strategic interests at stake in Taiwan 16:31 — Why Taiwan is the “keystone” in China’s ambitions 17:34 — Rethinking deterrence beyond military power 19:17 — Political deterrence explained 20:45 — China’s “gray zone” tactics: quarantine and coercion 23:13 — Why global opinion and allies matter in a crisis 27:09 — Technological leadership, AI, and strategic competition 31:55 — Strategic stability: nuclear, cyber, and space domains 33:18 — Why economic deterrence may fail 35:01 — “Avalanche decoupling” and supply chain strategy 37:15 — Why economic interdependence can deter the U.S. 40:25 — Rebuilding a stronger global economic system 41:15 — Freymann’s 60-second strategy for U.S. leadership 43:26 — Where to find the book + closing Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaDeskFNW