EP195: The New Oil Price War: Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, and the Battle for Market Control

Summary:In this episode, we discuss the complex dynamics impacting the global oil market in 2025, highlighting how U.S. tariffs and trade tensions are suppressing demand and increasing costs for both refiners and U.S. shale producers. We also analyze OPEC+'s strategy of increasing production despite low prices, a move primarily aimed at disciplining non-compliant members like Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan's consistent overproduction, driven by economic needs and international oil company operations, is seen as a significant factor undermining OPEC+ unity and contributing to a global supply surplus. The collective result of these forces is a volatile market with downward pressure on prices and significant risks for oil-dependent economies. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe