EP222: SoH Crisis Takeaways: Sector Performance

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.We continue our July series focused on Strait of Hormuz Crisis takeaways with a focus on energy and power sub-sector stock performance. We take a look back at growth and profitability since 2021, which has yielded some surprising results and areas for improvement. Our key messages from the four charts we go through this week are as follows: * Energy versus Tech has been inversely correlated since 2021, with Energy surprisingly having kept pace with the Mag-7 over this time frame. * Despite improving growth expectations Utilities have lagged on higher interest rates. The question is when does improving growth expectations for utilities overcome what might be an ongoing interest rate headwind. * Traditional energy equities are again discounting below normal oil prices…perhaps not quite trough conditions, but something only a little bit better. * There has been considerable sub-sector divergence on profitability and growth over the last 5 years, with some surprising winners, losers, and areas for improvement. LNG, IPPs, midstream, and downstream sectors are all winners. There is scope for improvement from IOCs, both oily and gassy E&Ps, and oil services. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 2:39 Energy and Tech Inversely Correlated Since 2021 5:16 Utilities Lag On Higher Treasury Yields 6:34 Forward Oil Outperforming Oil Equities 10:30 Sector Growth and CROCI Comparison 14;44 On A Personal Note 📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com