EP26: Autonomous Hunter Killer Drones

Summary:In this episode we discuss the development and deployment of autonomous hunter-killer drones by various countries, particularly focusing on the US, Israel, Turkey, and China. We examine the capabilities of specific drones such as the US' Replicator and Replicator 2, Israel's Orbiter 2 LM, Turkey's STM Kargu 2, and various Chinese drones. We also raise the question of whether the US is falling behind in the field of autonomous weapons systems and explores the implications of this technology in modern warfare. Questions to consider as you read/listen:What are the current capabilities of autonomous hunter-killer drones in different countries?What is the US's role in the development and deployment of autonomous weapon systems?How is the development and use of autonomous weapons changing the nature of warfare? Long format: Autonomous Hunter Killer Drones With the announced confirmed death of Yahya Sinwar with the following link reported to show his end moments https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1847006929790685652 We can clearly see this was a weaponized UAV attack.  Israel has a quadcopter named Lanius that this appears to be that is a human driven hunter killer. Israel's Aeronautics Group has unveiled a new variant of its renowned Orbiter 2 unmanned aerial system (UAS) that combines surveillance and precision strike capabilities. The Orbiter 2 LM one-way attack platform is designed to neutralize targets with nearby intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) drones. Goshawk: An autonomous drone hunter developed by Robotican and the Israeli Air Force. It's patterned after birds of prey and can reach speeds of nearly 80 miles per hour. ROTEM: Israel's version of a suicide drone system. Without a doubt the CLAIMED capabilities of Chinese with autonomous weapon systems sounds impressive such as GJ-11 Sharp Sword, Sunflower 200, Wing Loong and Caihong 4 (CH-4) as well as highly autonomous weapon systems like FH-97A.  Where is the US? Maybe we haven’t publicly sent into the field a STM Kargu-2 (Turkey), Saker Scout (Ukraine) or Gospel (Israel) like weapon with great fanfare, but that doesn’t mean our military has not. We are just tight lipped about it as explained in the article below.  We do have Replicator (offensive  all-domain attritable autonomous ((ADA2) systems using AeroVironment Inc.’s Switchblade-600) and Replicator 2 (more defensive anti swarm minded AI autonomous based) that are in the field deployed in Ukraine per the below sources.  As PZ says one of the “nice” things about the war in the Ukraine and in Gaza is that we get to see the evolution and effectiveness of changes in tactics and techniques in this new asymmetrical warfare environment. We get to deploy and evaluate systems and see how they work in the real world in real conflict.  UAVs. USVs. UGVs.  Are we at parity with China, Israel, Turkey or Ukraine? Dunno. Maybe. But $1B minimum sure ought to put you in the ballpark.  We are not idly sitting by like an Ostrich with its head in the sand waiting to be eaten by the Chinese lion.  Sources: https://federalnewsnetwork.com/defense-main/2024/09/pentagons-replicator-2-to-focus-on-drone-defense/#:~:text=Replicator%2C%20unveiled%20last%20August%2C%20is,time%20across%20multiple%20regions%20worldwide https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/3766349/deputy-secretary-of-defense-hicks-announces-first-tranche-of-replicator-capabil/ https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2024/05/new-details-give-replicator-distinct-ukrainian-flavor/396344/ https://news.usni.org/2024/03/11/pentagon-will-spend-1b-on-first-round-of-replicator-drones  Türkiye (the new name for the country of Turkey) has the current state of the art of true autonomous hunter killer UAV called STM Kargu 2 drone The STM Kargu 2 is a quadcopter drone with many features, including: The STM Kargu 2 is a quadcopter drone with many features, including: Attack capabilities: The Kargu 2 is designed to be an anti-personnel weapon that can select and engage human targets. It can be operated autonomously or manually Swarm operation: The Kargu 2 can operate in a swarm of up to 20 drones, which can provide a massive attack potential. Day and night operation: The Kargu 2 can operate reliably day and night. Target tracking: The Kargu 2 can track moving targets.  Navigation: The Kargu 2 has a high performance navigation and flight control system. Ammunition: The Kargu 2 can use different types of ammunition, including high-explosive fragmentation, thermobaric, and cumulative.Safety: The Kargu 2 has in-flight mission abort and emergency self-destruction capabilities. It also has advanced electronic ammunition safety, setup, and trigger systems.  Artificial intelligence: The Kargu 2 has built-in artificial intelligence (AI). The details are a little fuzzy but clearly it has autonomous navigation capabilities. What is less clear is that it can be set up in a loitering/monitoring position (think like an IFR hold pattern) and has an automatic target recognition system.  Sources: https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/kargu-rotary-wing-attack-drone/#:~:text=The%207kg%20drone%20measures%20600mm%20long%2C%20600mm,and%20a%20user%2Dfriendly%20ground%20control%20unit%20interface https://lieber.westpoint.edu/kargu-2-autonomous-attack-drone-legal-ethical/ https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/kargu-rotary-wing-attack-drone/#:~:text=The%207kg%20drone%20measures%20600mm%20long%2C%20600mm,and%20a%20user%2Dfriendly%20ground%20control%20unit%20interface https://www.turkishdefencenews.com/kargu-rotary-wing-attack-drone/ https://automatedresearch.org/weapon/stm-kargu-loitering-munition/ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe