Ep72: Modelling a pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to public attention, like never before, the work of public health physicians as well as epidemiologists, statisticians and computer modelers. The crisis also shown how hard it is to take decisions affecting the lives of millions when there is so little evidence to go on. Models of viral spread and interventions to mitigate these have become everyday discussion points, but few people understand how hard these are to put together. In this podcast we share expert talks that were presented at the RACP Congress in April and May. While they precede the latest developments of the delta strain and the National Plan to curb it by increasing vaccination rates, they clarify some of the first principles that go into creating these simulations, and the pressures of giving critical public health advice.Guests Professor Michael Baker FAFPHM (University of Otago)Professor Tony Blakely (Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne) Professor Jodie McVernon FAFPHM (Director of Epidemiology, Doherty Institute) ProductionWritten and produced by Mic Cavazzini DPhil. Music courtesy of FreeMusic Archive includes, ‘Namaste’ by Jason Shaw, ‘Snowfall Intro’ by Kai Engel, ‘Become Death’ by Jahzarr, ‘The Time is Now’ by Borrtex. Music licenced from Epidemic Sound includes ‘Organic Textures’ by Johannes Bornlöf  and ‘Sunstorm’ by ELFL. Image licensed from Getty Images.  Feedback on this episode was kindly provided Frank Beard of the RACP COVID-19 Expert Advisory Group, and the following members of the Podcast Editorial Group; Rosalynn Pszczola, Seema Radhakrishnan, Duncan Austin, Sern Wei Yeoh, Paul Cooper, Adrienne Torda, Nele Legge, Keith Ooi, Lisa Mounsey, Marion Leighton, Stella Sarlos and Rhiannon Mellor. Please visit the RACP website for a transcript and supporting references. Fellows of the College can claim CPD credits for listening to the podcast and reading supporting resources.