Epiosde 2506: Are Google and Facebook screwed?

Are Google and Facebook screwed? That’s the question which Keith Teare asks in today’s That Was The Week tech newsletter. In our age of nationalist globalization, Teare argues, Facebook and Google, the original darlings of the Web 2.0 revolution are, so-to-speak, half-fucked. On the one hand, they are the victims of a legal witch hunt by a nationalist U.S. government intent on punishing Big Tech innovation; on the other, they continue to reap the benefits of an increasingly globalized digital marketplace. No wonder, then, that Lee-Anne Mullholland, the Google VP of Regulatory Affairs, has claimed a kind of Trumpian half-victory in this week’s legal ruling against her company. “We won half of this case and we will appeal the other half,” Mullholland wrote. Perhaps. But as Teare drolly remarks in his editorial, “nobody can accuse the Government of being fast.” No, not even half-fast. In this absurdly anachronistic fight against Google and Facebook, the snail-paced U.S. government is actually fighting the war before the last war. The only Big Tech thing that matters in 2025 is artificial intelligence. And retroactively breaking up half-archaic companies like Meta or Google isn’t going to make much difference in today’s all-important race to control tomorrow’s A.I. economy. * Google and Meta (Facebook) are facing significant antitrust challenges. Meta is undergoing a trial questioning the legitimacy of their acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp from 2012 and 2014, while Google has been found guilty of maintaining an advertising monopoly.* Both Keith and Andrew discuss how the government's antitrust actions seem to come too late, with Keith describing it as "government overreach" and noting that "Nobody can accuse the government of being fast," calling these cases against actions from a decade ago "shocking."* Keith argues that these companies are facing existential threats from technological shifts, not just legal challenges. He notes that Google's core business of cost-per-click advertising is shrinking both in usage and revenue per click, and faces additional challenges in the AI era where ads don't fit neatly with AI results.* Then there’s China. Keith and Andrew discuss about the decline of Western technological dominance and the rise of the Chinese economy, with references to a shift toward "de-globalization" at the political and military level while economic globalization continues.* They discuss the potential future impact of AI on employment and social structures, with Keith noting that the "unknown unknown" is "the impact of AI on employment and abundance," suggesting two possible futures: either a utopia where "nobody needs to work and everyone can eat, live, feed, be entertained" or an "apocalypse where it's a hellscape for anyone that isn't rich."Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe