Episode 101: May Housing Starts Drop 15% as Multifamily Craters

May housing starts fell 15.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.18 million units, but the headline understates the real shock: multifamily construction cratered 40.2% in a single month to an annualized pace of just 295,000 units — down 14.2% year-over-year. For LIHTC developers, syndicators, and lenders, the data lands at a critical moment, signaling that the construction pipeline is under serious stress from elevated interest rates, rising costs, and persistent labor shortages. Key Takeaways: Overall May housing starts fell 15.4% to a 1.18 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (HUD/Census Bureau). Multifamily starts dropped 40.2% in May to a 295,000 annualized pace — the sector is down 14.2% vs. May 2025. Single-family starts declined 1.9% to an 882,000 annualized rate, down 6.7% year-over-year; homes under construction at 587,000, off 5.9% from a year ago. Multifamily permits fell 2.8% to a 527,000 annualized pace in May, though they remain up 2.5% vs. May 2025 — a modest forward-pipeline signal worth watching. The Northeast is the only region running positive on both starts (+17.5% YTD) and permits (+10% YTD); the South is down 6.7% on permits YTD. NAHB's June builder sentiment survey weakened further, with elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges cited as primary headwinds. New LIHTC transactions underwriting today face elevated feasibility risk — the starts-to-permits gap indicates financing and cost execution, not demand, is where deals are stalling. The divergence between permits (relatively stable) and starts (sharply lower) is the key signal for affordable housing finance professionals. It suggests developers intend to build but cannot make the numbers work at current cost and rate levels — a dynamic that directly pressures LIHTC equity pricing, increases gap financing needs, and may drive further requests for basis boosts or state subsidy layering. Teams actively underwriting new transactions in the South and West should stress-test construction budgets more aggressively and revisit financing structures before locking commitments. Subscribe to The Spring Street Brief for daily updates on affordable housing in America.