Episode 11

The polls had Abdul El-Sayed cruising by 15-plus points in the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. He won by one. This week we dig into one of the worst polling misses in recent history and what to take from it. In this episode, we cover: How did Michigan's Senate primary polls fool almost everyone? – El-Sayed edged Haley Stevens by a single point while polls and prediction markets had him winning by a much larger margin. Plus, Mallory McMorrow, already out of the race, still pulled 4%. We break down why the polls showed a blowout, the role of open-primaries and seasonality in polling, and whether pollsters herded toward the Emerson numbers. Texas and Wisconsin are closer than the headlines suggest – A new YouGov poll puts James Talarico up on Ken Paxton, but Randy calls Talarico's lead "fool's gold." We analyze the 2018 Cruz-Beto comparison, the money gap, and why Mark thinks Wisconsin's Democratic primary between Francesca Hong and David Crowley is far from settled. Maine, hot takes, and a sleeper Senate race – Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins in fresh Hart Research numbers, and we explain why we still wouldn't bet against Collins. Plus Randy's case that summer generic-ballot polls are overstating Democratic support, and Mark's pick for the race nobody's talking about. POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Emerson College Michigan Senate primary poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-abdul-el-sayed-leads-haley-stevens-for-democratic-us-senate-nomination/  📊 YouGov Texas Senate poll (Talarico 48%, Paxton 45%): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6a713767d4ed824b91ea090d/1785804647961/Texas+Statewide+August2026.pdf  📊 NYT/Siena Texas Senate poll (June, tied 47%/47%): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/07/01/polls/times-siena-texas-poll-crosstabs.html 🎲Kalshi, Texas Senate Race: kalshi.com/markets/senatetx 🎲Polymarket, Texas Senate Race: polymarket.com/predictions/texas-senate 📊 PPP Wisconsin governor primary poll (Hong 52%, Crowley 33%): https://www.wisn.com/article/crowley-campaign-argues-primary-is-closer-than-polls-say-after-michigan-results/73358997  📊 Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll (Hong 38%, and 46% with leaners): https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/07/29/marquette-law-poll-finds-expanded-support-for-hong-in-democratic-primary-barnes-sits-second-and-crowley-third/ 🎲Kalshi, Wisconsin Governor General Election: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartywi/wisconsin-governor/govpartywi-26 🎲Polymarket, Wisconsin Democratic primary: polymarket.com/event/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner 📊 Hart Research Maine Senate poll (Jackson 49%, Collins 45%): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1c_Oz7n375ncOkmMWPs8DJTKcBD3Gke4-/view  📰 "Moderate Democrats Prepare for 'War' Against an Ascendant Left," The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/06/us/politics/democratic-party-socialists-moderates.html?searchResultPosition=1  🎙 Patrick Ruffini (Echelon Insights) "nobody knows nothing" post on X: https://x.com/PatrickRuffini/status/2084835353437860230?s=20  This episode of The Polling Alley features Overton Insights Poll Director Mark Cunningham, founder of the Beacon Poll, with special guest Randy Ellison, founder and president of Targoz Market Research and author of the Pollsters' Almanac on Substack. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com