EPISODE · Jan 5, 2026 · 3 MIN
Episode 11: Starts Down 74% — Is the Multifamily Supply Cliff Here?
from Hot Not CRE · host Hot Not CRE
Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America.Today we're kicking off the week with the latest on multifamily and residential heading into 2026.🔥 What's Hot:Supply Wave Peaking — 500K-600K units delivered in 2025; starts down 74% from 2021 peak2026 Deliveries Drop 60% — Supply relief is coming fastAbsorption Strong — Job growth driving demand; buy vs rent premium at 32%Rent Growth Positive — 2-3% in 2025; 3%+ projected for 2026Midwest & Coastal Outperforming — Columbus led permits (+1,288 YoY); NYC strongInvestment Volume — $370-380B sales; cap rates stabilizingVacancy Elevated — 4.9-8.2% nationally; peaked 7.2% NovemberSun Belt Oversupply — Austin, Phoenix, Nashville, Charlotte lagging recoveryConcessions Common — New Class A hardest hit in high-supply marketsSingle-Family Cooling — Price growth just 0.2% quarterly❄️ What's Not:Takeaway: The supply wave is cresting, absorption is solid, and 2026 is shaping up to be a tighter market.Thanks for tuning in. See you tomorrow! Don't forget to Like, Share and Subscribe! Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.
What this episode covers
Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America.Today we're kicking off the week with the latest on multifamily and residential heading into 2026.🔥 What's Hot:Supply Wave Peaking — 500K-600K units delivered in 2025; starts down 74% from 2021 peak2026 Deliveries Drop 60% — Supply relief is coming fastAbsorption Strong — Job growth driving demand; buy vs rent premium at 32%Rent Growth Positive — 2-3% in 2025; 3%+ projected for 2026Midwest & Coastal Outperforming — Columbus led permits (+1,288 YoY); NYC strongInvestment Volume — $370-380B sales; cap rates stabilizingVacancy Elevated — 4.9-8.2% nationally; peaked 7.2% NovemberSun Belt Oversupply — Austin, Phoenix, Nashville, Charlotte lagging recoveryConcessions Common — New Class A hardest hit in high-supply marketsSingle-Family Cooling — Price growth just 0.2% quarterly❄️ What's Not:Takeaway: The supply wave is cresting, absorption is solid, and 2026 is shaping up to be a tighter market.Thanks for tuning in. See you tomorrow! Don't forget to Like, Share and Subscribe! Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.
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Episode 11: Starts Down 74% — Is the Multifamily Supply Cliff Here?
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