Episode 117 - Uncertainty and Decisions

Co-host Anna Glover joins Danielle Hernandez to explore a topic that sits at the heart of everything we do in live events: how do you make good decisions when you can't know the outcome? Their guest, Ben Cattaneo, is a risk and resilience professional, host of the Decision-Making Studio podcast, and co-author of "Decision Making in the Polycrisis Era". Ben opens by drawing a clear line between risk (where we can estimate probability) and uncertainty (where we genuinely can't) and argues that leaning into uncertainty as a frame produces better thinking than treating every scenario as a quantifiable risk. Risk matrices can create a false sense of security. Using a FOCUS framework to help guide decision making, the discussion explores the process and tools available to make a decision, including knowing how impactful the result may be to live with, i.e., a hat (fully reversible), a haircut (you'll live with it for a while), or a tattoo (irreversible). What happens when the moment arrives and people get cold feet about the decision they already agreed to make? The answer, Ben says: document the how and the why before the pressure hits, so you can defend a difficult decision without having to reconstruct your reasoning under stress. The episode closes with Anna and Ben connecting all of it back to live events as an environment for building decision-making capability. Every show is a new data point, every load-in a chance to practice. Hosts: Danielle Hernandez (host) Anna Glover (co-host) Guests: Ben Cattaneo | Risk and Resilience Practice, PwC; Host, Decision Making Studio Podcast Show Notes: Decision Making Studio Podcast | https://thedecisionmaking.studio Decision Making in the Polycrisis Era (book) | Available on major book retailers FOCUS Decision-making Primer | https://thedecisionmaking.studio/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/FOCUS.pdf ESA Safer Events Series - Weather | https://eventsafetyalliance.org/safer-events-series Contact Danielle | [email protected]