Episode 119 - The difference between prediction and explanation in business

We want to change in companies: from any current state to any new state (goals/ objectives). We need 2 things for that: a prediction (of the goal we want to reach) and an explanation for how to actually reach it (current state, actions, decisions, milestones, issues, ...) We focus on predictions too much : the goals in and of themselves / plus the KPIs to show how far we are away from the goals, the rewards when reching the goal, the importance of the goal, ... What is more important is to have good explanations for how to reach goals For people to reach goals they need to know how. You can’t reach it without knowhow And criticisms to improve those explanations There are however still good and bad explanations Bad explanations: “If you take your responsibility, you will reach the goal” It is close to true but a bad explanation, it doesn’t explain how the goal will be reached Good explanations: clear plans, with real-time updates whenever you learn from criticisms Either from trying something or aligning/ correcting something in the plan before trying it out The real knowledge is in the explanations, not in the goals not in the KPIs Recommendations: Explanations should get more time Explanations should be written down (apart from all the goals and KPIs that are already transparant) Criticism instead of seeking support for your explanation