Episode 133 – China's Economy: A Little Less Conversation, a Little More Control

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by two IIF colleagues, Marcello Estevão, Managing Director and Chief Economist, and Gene Ma, Head of China Research and Chief Representative for the Asia-Pacific region, to take a closer look at China’s evolving role in the global economy at a time when growth is no longer the country’s top priority. Long viewed as the engine of global expansion, China is now emphasizing domestic stability, reshaping trade patterns and global economic dynamics in the process. Drawing on recent travel across the region and insights from the IIF China Economic Forum, they discuss how policymakers and market participants are interpreting China’s shift away from growth-driven stimulus toward a more measured approach. The conversation explores the drivers behind China’s record trade surplus, including the role of weak imports alongside steady exports, ongoing challenges in the housing sector, rising household savings, and persistent deflationary pressures. Clay, Marcello, and Gene also examine how China’s increasing focus on trade with emerging markets—and reduced engagement with advanced economies—is reshaping global trade flows. The episode concludes with a forward-looking discussion on what really matters for understanding China in 2026, and why the key question may no longer be how fast China grows, but how its new economic posture affects the rest of the world. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.