Episode 146 – The Tail End of a Chimera — A Midyear Macroeconomic Update

As 2026 reaches its midpoint, the global economic outlook is growing more uncertain. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by the IIF's Marcello Estevão, Chief Economist and Managing Director, and Jonathan Fortun, Senior Economist, to unpack the latest Capital Flows Report and what it reveals about shifting growth, capital movements, and policy pressures. They examine how geopolitical shocks are compounding existing weaknesses, why the U.S. continues to outperform other economies, and what is driving mixed signals across emerging markets. The conversation also explores how supply chain disruptions are spreading beyond energy and what central banks and policymakers should be watching as risks build heading into the second half of the year. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.