Episode 15

Is Texas a red state, a purple state, or something in between? Our new Overton Insights / Texas Public Policy Foundation poll finds the Paxton–Talarico Senate race locked in a dead heat when leaners are forced to choose a candidate, and our hypothetical matchips may upend everything you've heard about who the "electable" candidate really is. In this episode, we cover: It's football season! We asked over 1,100 likely Texas voters who the most obnoxious college fan base is. We crowned the Texas A&M Aggies as the winner with 29.7% and University of Texas took a close second with 27.4%. Surprisingly, the University of Houston Cougars came in third. Is Texas actually turning purple? – 57% of Texans call their state reliably red, 38.3% say it's competitive, and just 4.7% call it blue. We break down why newcomers are far more likely to see purple, why nearly 29% of Republicans agree, and TPPF's Eric Oldfather makes the case that Texas is a "light red" state. Paxton vs. Talarico is a coin flip – Ken Paxton sits at 43.4% to James Talarico's 44%, and the race lands at an exact 50-50 once leaners are pushed. We analyze why this is the best Senate number Paxton has posted in months, and why Talarico has to "pitch a perfect game" to win. The Cornyn and Crockett myth-busting – Conventional wisdom said John Cornyn would have likely been the stronger nominee. This data says otherwise. Paxton trails Talarico by 0.6 points, and Cornyn by 0.9 points. On the other side, Jasmine Crockett loses to Paxton by 6 points. We discuss what that means for candidate quality versus the national environment. Is the Texas power grid reliable? We polled the difference in confidence among voters during periods of extreme heat and extreme cold. Eric Oldfather from the Texas Public Policy Foundation joins us to discuss the state of the Texas power grid and what Texans should know about today's energy policy landscape.  POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Overton Insights / Texas Public Policy Foundation Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/ The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. This episode also features special guest Eric Oldfather, Vice President of Communications at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, an Austin-based think tank. A sixth-generation Texan, Oldfather spent a decade as a digital marketing consultant for political campaigns and advocacy groups before joining TPPF, and holds a political science degree from George Washington University. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll - September 2026 Overton Insights / Texas Public Policy Foundation Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/