Episode 151 – 3 Recession Myths Every Transitioning JMO Should Know

Today on the podcast, we tackle 3 recession myths every JMO should know. As I write this post, I am flying from El Paso to Denver for a week-long trip through the Southwest US to meet with Junior Officers preparing for their transitions.  In my one-on-one meetings, officers are asking more questions about the economy. This makes sense with non-stop news about record inflation, the Fed raising interest rates to combat inflation (which will “cool” the economy), and a wildly fluctuating stock market.  The news pundits and some key business leaders are warning that the risk of a recession in the next 12 to 18 months is increasing. With 23 years of experience with Cameron-Brooks, I have experienced several significant events that sent our economy into a recession. These include the Tech Wreck and subsequent 9-11 attacks, the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 and the Covid recession of 2020.  There have been some other slowdowns during my time, but those are the big ones.  My colleague and fellow Transition Coach, Rob Davis, has 22 years of business experience across the tech, building materials and military-to-business recruiting industries.  He has similar experiences. To help JMOs understand what we see happening in the market right now, where we think it might go, and what the past has taught us to expect, Rob wrote a Transition Guide: 3 Recession Myths Every Transitioning JMO Should Know. We also decided to record a podcast to expand on the Transition Guide and share our personal stories. Our goal with the podcast is to help you learn that a successful transition, even during a recession (if and when it comes), is possible.  Rob and I also explain why companies will continue to hire and how you can prepare. During the podcast, we tackle recession myths and discuss: Despite the economic uncertainty and fluctuating stock market, the job market remains strong due to the supply chain challenges caused by the pandemic, Baby Boomers continuing to retire, and dynamic changes from people changing careers during the pandemic.  Unemployment remains at historic lows – well below 4%.  That is the current situation, and it will take a seismic event, something like what Covid did to us in March of 2020, to drastically change it. IF we have a recession in the next 12 to 24 months, companies will continue to hire talent because they always need leaders and to build their leadership teams for the future.  How do we know that? Because during all of the other recessions, even the brutal ones, companies continued to recruit and hire. There will be a recession at some point.  That is why they call it an economic cycle.  Nobody can predict when they will occur, so it is impossible to time the market. Your best strategy is to pursue your goals and be well prepared.  Avoid “kicking the can” down the road. You won’t need to settle for a second-tier company or position if you do transition in a down economy. Top-tier companies will recruit for their most important positions. Finally, you will learn how to recession-proof your transition strategy. If you’re interested in learning more about why companies hire from Cameron-Brooks, contact us! You can also check out our Transition Guide on “3 Game-Changing Strategies for JMOs Making the Jump to Business” for additional transition tips. To stay connected, we’d recommend subscribing to our YouTube Channel and following us on LinkedIn.