Episode 154: Michael W. Green on Why $140k Is The Real Poverty Line

Michael W. Green is the Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management. Previously in his nearly thirty-year career in finance, he managed macro strategies at Thiel Macro, the investment firm that manages the personal capital of Peter Thiel, and founded Ice Farm Capital, a macro hedge fund seeded by Soros Fund Management.In a recent series of essays on his Substack, beginning with My Life Is A Lie, Michael unpacked the dystopian impact of wealth inequality and the accompanying loss of civic trust in the United States. Part of that work included examining the origin of the poverty line as a metric for measuring relative wealth. He came to some stunning conclusions: * The poverty line in the US has been grossly underestimated by generations of economists and politicians;* An American family of four on an income of less than $140,000 per year is in a precarious position once other factors are accounted for;* Around 65% of Americans live in “the Valley Of Death”, an economic trough between around $40k to $100k in which additional income is negatively balanced out by the progressive withdrawal of means-tested support, leading to no real increase in material wealth.The response to his examination of the subject has been a viral outpouring of posts, comments, and think-pieces declaring him to be either an apologist for profligate wastrels incapable of living within their means or an overdue explainer of the underlying dynamics causing widespread inequality and dissatisfaction in The World’s Wealthiest Country™.As CBS News reported in January 2025, 59% of Americans say they “don't have enough savings to cover an unexpected $1,000 emergency expense.” According to the Gini Index, the United States sits somewhere between Turkmenistan and Uganda in terms of inequality.In this conversation, Michael explains his motives and methodology, and expands on the reinforcing factors contributing to the current crisis of trust and cohesion in the United States.You can subscribe to Michael’s Substack, Yes I Give A Fig, or follow him on X.Subscribe for free to our SubstackVisit our websiteFollow us on X and InstagramListen and rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit 1984today.substack.com