Episode 16

Our Texas poll is now included in Nate Silver's forecasts! Plus Olivia and Mark dig into three races most people may not be watching yet, plus the math both parties need in order to control the Senate after the midterms. In this episode, we cover: - Overton's Texas poll tops Nate Silver's forecast – Our recent Texas survey, built on a likely voter screen of over 1,100 respondents, is now weighted highest in Silver Bulletin's model. We break down what got us there and why methodology matters more than timing. - Kansas gets its moment – A listener contest winner picked the topic, so we dig into the Kansas Governor's race between Cindy Holster and J.D. Masterson, plus the Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton Senate race. We discuss why Kansas isn't the deep-red state people assume, and why this is the first two-candidate governor's ballot the state has seen in 32 years. - New Hampshire's under-the-radar Senate race – Mark makes the case for why John Sununu could be more competitive against Chris Pappas than the betting markets suggest, and what his family name means in a state with a surprisingly libertarian streak. - Minnesota's stunner of a poll – A new TIPP survey has Michelle Tafoya down just two points to Peggy Flanagan, a huge indicator the race may be closer than one might expect. We discuss what it signals for Republicans across the Midwest. - The path to Senate control – With Republicans holding a 53-47 edge, we rank the races that actually decide the majority, including Maine, Texas, and one Senator whose party affiliation could scramble the math entirely. --- POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Global Strategy Group poll, Kansas Governor's race (Holster internal): https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/08/28/nevada-dems-2028-reality-check-01053864 📊 University of New Hampshire poll, Sununu +2: https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/988/ 📊 TIPP poll for the League of American Workers, Minnesota Senate: https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-minnesota/ --- The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels, alongside Mark Cunningham, Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com