Episode 17

The generic ballot is moving fast toward Democrats, and Mark's not sure whether to call it a wave or a tsunami. But here are three races Republicans surprisingly have a chance at winning! In this episode, we cover: Blue wave or blue tsunami? – National generic ballot polling has swung hard toward Democrats, with likely-voter samples running as high as D+11 to D+13 (Marquette). We break down why the shift tracks so closely with Trump's approval, why the $5,000 checks aren't moving Republican voters, and what the roughly 10-point statewide movement means with just weeks to go. Three competitive races Republicans should watch – In a D-leaning national environment, New Hampshire (Sununu vs Pappas), Oregon (Drazan vs. Kotek), and Minnesota (Tafoya vs Flanagan) are all much more competitive than many expected. We analyze why these states run on their own logic, plus a Maine deep dive on why Susan Collins is outperforming Trump by 20-plus points and holding a narrow lead over Troy Jackson. Iowa's split-ticket setup – We discuss Rob Sand's strong run for governor, the tighter Turek–Hinson Senate race, and why voters cross party lines for governors far more readily than for senators. Mark flags Sand as a name to watch for potential 2028 presidential nominees. SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode… 00:28 - Blue wave or blue tsunami? 01:00 - Likely voters make it worse: Marquette D+13 and the D+8-to-10 read 01:45 - A 10-point swing in nearly every state 02:12 - How much of this is just Trump's approval? 04:10 - Why the $5,000 checks aren't working 05:49 - Three races Republicans shouldn't be competitive in: NH, Oregon, Minnesota 07:25 - Maine deep dive: Collins vs. Jackson favorability and the double-haters 09:40 - Mark's upset pick: Susan Collins wins again 09:57 - Cook moves New Hampshire to toss-up 10:27 - Mark takes a victory lap on Sununu 11:35 - The unexpected potential map: Texas blue, New Hampshire red 12:59 - Setting the stage in Iowa 13:22 - Rob Sand, candidate quality, and the governor's race 15:50 - A 2028 name to watch 17:01 - Why voters split tickets for governor but not Senate 18:14 - Does that cross-party habit reach the Texas governor's race? POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Overton Insights Texas Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/ 📊 Marquette Law School Poll (likely voters, D+13): https://law.marquette.edu/poll/?n=@ 📊 Morning Consult generic ballot (D+4): https://intel.morningconsult.com/mc-content/trackers/donald-trump-congress-policy-republicans-polling 📊 Quantus Insights Maine Senate poll (Collins vs. Jackson): https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/quantus-survey-collins-and-jackson-even-in-maine-senate-race 📊 Emerson Iowa polling: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/ 📊 Cygnal Iowa poll: https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-09-11-2026.pdf 📰 Cook Political Report — New Hampshire Senate moved to toss-up: [LINK NEEDED] The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/