Episode 179: Don’t Sell the Bottom

The lumber market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast. The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half. They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners. But the real conversation is about risk. Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity? Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell. Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom. Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager [email protected] www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: [email protected] Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected] Matt Beymer: [email protected] Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected] er market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast. The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half. They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners. But the real conversation is about risk. Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity? Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell. Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom. Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager [email protected] www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: [email protected] Charles DeLaTorre: [email protected] Matt Beymer: [email protected] Ashley Boeckholt: [email protected]