Episode 2 – Adding Uncertainty to the Project Plan with PERT

In this episode, we explore how uncertainty can be incorporated into project schedules using the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). Building on traditional planning methods, PERT extends the Critical Path Method (CPM) by replacing single-point duration estimates with three estimates: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic.This approach allows project managers to capture uncertainty in activity durations and translate it into probabilities of meeting project deadlines. By applying simple statistical reasoning, PERT provides insights into schedule risk and helps identify the activities that are most critical for timely project completion.Although based on simplifying assumptions, PERT shows how analytical thinking improves project planning beyond intuition, enabling more realistic schedules and providing a structured basis for monitoring and control.For more insights:Short article: Adding Uncertainty to the Project Plan.Book: Vanhoucke, M., 2018, The Data-Driven Project Manager: A Statistical Battle Against Project Obstacles, Apress.Website: www.or-as.be/orastalksCategory: Methods and ToolsTags: Project planning · PERT · Critical Path Method · Schedule uncertainty · Project risk analysisAI Transparency Statement: This episode uses AI for narration. Learn more about how ORASTalks uses AI responsibly at ⁠www.or-as.be/orastalks⁠.