Episode 209: Popular SWR Delusions And The Madness Of Gurus And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 30, 2022

In this episode we answer a lengthy email from Kevin about issues with popular estimates of Safe Withdrawal Rates.  We then discuss the problems with and failings of some of these estimates and their underlying analysis, including why Best Practices beat Convenient Shibboleths, failures to analyze non-simplistic portfolios, misuse of the "reversion to the mean" concept, improper use of conservative assumptions and modelling software, improper use of the 30-year time frame, and the failure to incorporate well-accepted favorable assumptions.  We also discuss appeals to popularity and conflicts of interest, including safety in numbers, the use of double standards, the popularity of pessimism, and the desire to please sponsors, sell products and maintain past consistency, whether foolish or warranted.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:SWR Series #34:  Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement NowNext Level Life Video re Gold:  Why Are Gold Portfolios So Dependable? - YouTubeRAM Interview of Wade Pfau:  ReSolve Riffs with Wade Pfau on Optimal Retirement Strategies - YouTubeMorningstar 2011 (Lousy) Predictions Article:  Your Forecasts for Stock and Bond Returns  (2011)| MorningstarPortfolio Charts SWR/PWR Calculator:  WITHDRAWAL RATES – Portfolio ChartsKitces Article Re Consequences of Retirement Spending Smile:  How Total Spending Declines Over Time In Retirement (kitces.com)RAM Interview of Antti Ilmanen:  Antti Ilmanen on his new book "Investing Amid Low Expected Returns" - YouTubeImmediate Annuities Website:  Immediate Annuities - Income Annuity Quote Calculator - ImmediateAnnuities.comSupport the show