Episode #22 | May 2026: Climbing the wall of worry

Global markets rebounded strongly in April, led by the US, despite ongoing volatility driven by the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices. While sentiment improved, markets are increasingly pricing in higher inflation, higher interest rates, and softer growth, with early signs of weakening earnings expectations and declining consumer confidence—particularly in Australia. Looking ahead, the key uncertainty remains the duration of the conflict: a near-term resolution could support markets, while a prolonged period of elevated oil prices risks a stagflationary environment.