Episode 29: Chaz Nuttycombe on State Navigate Forecast Part 2

Sam ShiraziAll right. Well, let's go down back to Hampton Roads for House District 69. The incumbent is Chad Green, and you give him a 59% chance of winning.Chaz, this district was actually unopposed in 2023. So what why do you think it's actually this close in 2025?00:20.94Chaz NuttycombeYeah, I mean, that's going one of the biggest recruitment failures for the Democrats in 2023 because it didn't vote for Trump by much in 2020. It is more Republican down ballot though. Right. So, I mean, we don't know what, how strong of incoming green is.00:34.86Chaz NuttycombeHe votes about like where a swing district member is. um So, So, you know, but you know, he's very tall and usually the tallest candidate wins.00:47.03Chaz NuttycombeBut, you know, he is also running against a doctor, Mark Downey, who, ran for the house in, it 2021? Maybe 2021, but at least 2019. I know that, he ran against, uh, pretty much the equivalent of this district.01:02.53Chaz NuttycombeUh, I actually want to say he ran. the i want to say he ran against Ben. Did he run against Baton in 2019? If I recall correctly, something like that.01:10.90Sam ShiraziI think that's all right.01:12.85Chaz NuttycombeYeah. So, you know, doctors perform or perform well electorally.01:20.52Chaz NuttycombeHe performed OK before, though. So, I mean, well, i this is going to be a tight seat, I think. This again, 59 percent chance Green wins 1.6 point margin for Green did vote for this district, did vote for Trump narrowly.01:41.10Chaz Nuttycombebut it is, you know, college pretty college educated. Spanberger is probably going to win this district. Um, but I wouldn't be surprised that she lost it given its partisan lean. so it'll be interesting to watch. Uh, I think I've been kept up with the campaign finance. I know we have it plugged in, but I don't remember off the top my head with campaign finances here, but.02:00.50Chaz Nuttycombeknow, days away from the new campaign finance reports. So we'll see, you know, like how much Democrats thinking of targeting it and how, you know, much trouble Republicans think they're in once we see those reports.02:12.45Sam ShiraziYeah, definitely starting to get to some seats that you know Republicans are more favored. And i I did want to talk about another one, which is House District 64 back up in Nova in Stafford.02:22.78Sam ShiraziRepublicans, Paul Milday. forecast has him at a 60% favorite. you know Chaz, what do you think a district like this, how does the federal cuts and what's going on with Doge play into a place like this in Northern Virginia?02:36.33Chaz NuttycombeI think you and I may agree to disagree on here and we'll see how Nova goes. But I don't think that Doge is really making much of an impact in this election. That's that's my take. I don't think that Nova is going to relative to the environment or relative to the statewide margin is going to bolt to the left. It may swing to the left. i don't think it's going to bolt to the left like it did in 2017.02:58.58Chaz Nuttycombeso, uh, but you know, I may be wrong. Uh, maybe, maybe people are in Nova are upset about the doge cuts. I'm a Richmond guy. It ain't my territory.03:08.67Chaz NuttycombeSo, uh, I may be very well wrong and, and don't have a read up there. Uh, and I'm overestimating the Republicans. We'll see. but yeah, we have Mildy favored. this is a narrow Trump district.03:19.63Chaz NuttycombeUh, it did vote for Kane, uh, narrowly last year as well. It and what's interesting here that I think it's not really I'm not sure why this is the case. mean, I haven't inquired, but Mildy was a big self fundraiser, right? I mean, he he loaned a lot of money to his previous campaigns in 2019 when he beat Bob Thomas a primary.03:41.61Chaz NuttycombeAnd to say the same in 2017. I think he ran and nearly lost. Um, so, but I don't think he's done that this time.03:52.51Chaz Nuttycombeso, I mean we'll see in the new campaign campaign finance reports, maybe, he does, but yeah, this is probably gonna a tight race. Um, Um, you know, our forecast still has him winning.04:01.91Chaz Nuttycombethink he wins, but the Dems didn't also, this is kind of similar to early, You know, like Mildy won by nine. This district isn't really trending to the left like Earlies is, though.04:14.28Chaz NuttycombeBut, you know, Mildy ran against a Democrat with like no campaign. Like, you know, some Democrats blame that candidate for the loss in the highly contested state Senate District 27 election.04:29.94Chaz Nuttycombebut The open seat, which Tara Durant won a promotion to the House or sorry, a promotion to the Senate from the House. um So but Democrats are actually trying to see this time. I think it's a little bit of a reach to them.04:41.79Chaz NuttycombeBut, you know, if the Democrats are outperforming our forecast, yeah, this could flip.04:45.56Sam ShiraziWe'll go down i ninety five a little bit to House District 66. This is south of Fredericksburg. The incumbent is Bobby Oroch, and you have him as a 64% favorite. Bobby Oroch's been around for a long time. i mean, sometimes that helps an incumbent because they have name ID. Sometimes it hurts because it doesn't seem like he's run a competitive race in a long time. i mean, Chez, you think he's in any real trouble?05:07.67Chaz NuttycombeYeah, Bobby Orrick is one of the top ah performing Republicans in the House because he has such roots in his community, right? He's been he's nobody's been in the House longer than Bobby Orrick. He's been in there for three decades, actually more than three decades. But I think it's been like 35 years, if I recall correctly. I think he got elected in there. Nineteen eighty five.05:28.00Chaz NuttycombeI recall correctly, I'm writing on his race and it's such an interesting district. um this district, I mean, he hasn't represented South Carolina, is like the Democratic part of Caroline County.05:39.41Chaz NuttycombeYou've got like some like gated communities there, ah like Lake Caroline. And then you have like rural black areas like Carmel Church and and and whatnot near Doswell.05:52.46Chaz NuttycombeI'm just across from the Hanover County border. You know, you've got Ladysmith, which is you know, like kind of a swing area. So but, you know, Democrats have lost a lot of ground in Caroline.06:04.88Chaz NuttycombeAnd but they've gained ground in in Spotsy in those ah ah suburbs. This district did narrowly vote for Trump last time. And the main strength behind Bobby Oroch is that he gets so much ticket splitting support with those Fredericksburg suburb voters in Spotsylvania County.06:26.19Chaz Nuttycombehe's represented them at least yeah for most of them through the 2010s. and then the And then, you know, for those, you know, this has an area that's been growing. So I don't think there's really many people who'd be like, oh, yeah, Bobby Oreck has represented me for three decades. Right. People move, people die and ah people move in.06:44.79Chaz NuttycombeSo ah but still, I mean, he's been such a fixture in that area. But also, like, even though Bobby Oreck doesn't have any potential, uh, he's never represented Southern Caroline, which is new to him. has roots there. He went to Ladysmith high school. I think he, uh, did, uh, or, lady yeah, think he went to Ladysmith high school, if I recall correctly.07:04.00Chaz NuttycombeHe, even though Woodford, Woodford used to be in his district, would he volunteered with the Woodford fire department? Which is right on the cusp of this district. You probably had the Woodford fire department go into Southern Caroline, little bit, I would guess.07:17.74Chaz NuttycombeI don't know. It's, it's, uh, across the way from me. I don't get out out there that much except for the state fair. So yeah, it's really interesting district. And I think Spanberger wins this because she's probably going to pound the Republicans in the Fredericksburg suburbs.07:33.62Chaz NuttycombeBut the issue, and this is also a seat again, where it's like the Democrats didn't do anything to try and beat Bobby Oreck. He won by like 11 points, maybe, ah maybe 12 in 2023. And now they are trying to win they They got a a Democrat who was on the Spotsy school board, which, you know, flipped in 2023 because a lot of voters were not happy the book banning that was going on, I think, was was the story.07:59.91Chaz NuttycombeSo I'm really interested in that race. I think it's something that's flying under people's radar. But yeah, I mean, it it it it is a reach, but it's just in terms of like from political science perspective of like,08:10.88Chaz Nuttycombejust the amount of crossover support he's going to be getting from the, um, the the spotty suburbs. I think it's going to be really interesting. but yeah, when you have incumbents like this, who've been allowed, who've been around for so long, I mean, Oryx voting record isn't like,08:26.12Chaz NuttycombeReally, i think it's to the right of a lot of the swing district members, but people just like the guy so much to where it's like, yeah, I'll vote for Bobby. You know, you probably hear that a lot in the Fredericksburg suburbs.08:38.27Chaz NuttycombeSo i'm I'm interested in it. It's it's such a weird, weirdly da drawn district. Right. So ah it'll be interesting to watch.08:47.54Sam ShiraziSo we'll go down to a different type of incumbent down in House District 86. This is AC Cardoza. He is running in a district where he won during the red wave of 2021.08:59.86Sam ShiraziAnd this year, he has 64% chance of winning according to the forecast. Chaz, is this the type of district where Paquostin is just so red that it'll save Cardoza this year?09:12.16Chaz NuttycombeCordeaux is such an interesting incumbent, beyond, I think he's, he's, he's really, do I, how do I put this? know.09:22.51Chaz NuttycombeHe's, he's, he's, he's fast. He fascinates me. in, in so many ways, you know, he, he dresses very uniquely at the general assembly with, you know, his his bowling hats and and all that.09:33.66Chaz NuttycombeAnd then like, he was like one of the worst performing Republicans in 2021. you know and he's But he still won. He still won in a massive upset. um I was dishonest he won.09:44.27Chaz Nuttycomberight Because he didn't really have that strong of a campaign and everybody thought, oh, Martha Muggler is such a strong incumbent, even though she was a one-termer. Or ended up being a one-termer. And but he was one of the strongest Republican, probably strongest Republican performances in 2023.10:00.08Chaz NuttycombeSo it it flipped its head on itself, his his electoral record. So it's really it's really interesting. Yeah, I think that's one part of it is Pocosin. then, you know, that part of York is a little bit swingy, I guess, but it still leans Republican.10:15.29Chaz NuttycombeAt least in, you know, ah quite, I think there's like three eight three precincts in there. You have a pretty strongly Republican precinct in there. I think you've got two little swingy ones. He also didn't really have much of an opponent, like a strong opponent last time.10:28.79Chaz Nuttycombedon't think he has that much strong of a opponent this time. The district did vote for Harris, though. But I think this is also one of the things to where it's like, yes, Bamberger is not going to do well with turning out black voters.10:40.85Chaz NuttycombeI think that's not like what our forecast is picking up. But I think that's one of the reasons why it's like, yeah, because of his 2023 performances is heavily favored.10:51.07Chaz NuttycombeNot heavily, right? He's he's got a 64 percent chance of winning. Um, so let me take that back. But compared to like a lot of these other, uh, incumbents, he's in a pretty strong position.11:01.71Chaz Nuttycombeso yeah, I mean, black turnout is going to be very important and yeah, just the coast and man, I mean, that is when that city came in, i mean, that was one of the reasons why, you know, we were able to call, uh, Danny digs race over Monty Mason was because it was because in 2023, when we were doing race calls, we saw the missing boats.11:21.57Chaz NuttycombeEverybody's like, what the F, um, we're like, no, there's a voting error. And ah ah that's going to come in that's going to put, that's going to solidify Danny Diggs lead. So yeah, Pocosin. And then I think black turnout in Hampton is going to be a point of concern for the Dems in this seat.11:35.90Chaz NuttycombeAnd his, Cordos's electoral record is an unknown. Like we don't, we don't know if is he if he's strong like he was in 2023 or if he's weak like in 2021. So it'll be interesting to see.11:51.40Sam ShiraziYeah, well, moving on to some of the more reached districts for the Democrats, I will go over to House District 52. This is in Lynchburg. The current incumbent is Wendell Walker. You give him a 77% chance of winning. ah ah you know How could the Democrats potentially pick up the seat in an upset, do you think, Chaz?12:13.69Chaz NuttycombeSo kind of going back to earlier when I was talking about Blacksburg and just the gains that Republicans have made with college students. I mean, Liberty University turnout was awful compared compared to its share of the electorate in 2023 in this district, which is, you know, can for those who don't know, Liberty University, pretty much the most famously known a conservative college in America that makes up a large portion of the electorate here and not just its precinct, but its surrounding precincts and whatnot.12:42.24Chaz Nuttycombeit made such a smaller portion compared to the presidential. If you look at our maps, which I highly recommend, you could go to state navigate.org slash Virginia. And so, yeah, I think that's the thing is that, I mean, Walker didn't really have a strong performance. I think it in part it's because of that, but also, I mean, there are precincts there that voted for Trump last year in like the Northern part of the city, which I don't know. I haven't, I've been to Lynchburg like maybe once or twice in my life.13:09.80Chaz NuttycombeAnd it's really just passing through. So I don't think there's really any or much Liberty University students in the north of the city. But yet he lost precincts that ended up voting for Trump in 2024.13:23.57Chaz NuttycombeThis district has been decently close, but it it there does seem like there might be a ceiling for the Dems. But like, it you know, Liberty University turnout compared to its presidential is probably going to crater.13:36.54Chaz NuttycombeWalker won by like what? eight or nine in 2023, which is about the same as early, about the same as Mildy. And it doesn't seem like the Dems are targeting the seat.13:47.31Chaz NuttycombeAnd I get it. It hasn't really. i wrote about this is one of what we call the supermajority three, one of the three seats that decide the supermajority. And you can read that piece on like, what are the chances?13:58.40Chaz NuttycombeRight. And what is the path for the Dems to get it? It's going to be these next three seats. And the Dems aren't targeting it. It'll be fascinating. I don't really know much about the Dem candidate.14:08.68Chaz NuttycombeI don't, I mean, they aren't getting a lot of investment and we saw in the last campaign finance reports. Maybe it will change. We'll see.14:15.77Sam ShiraziWell, we got another district in Hampton Roads. This is House District 99. The incumbent is Anne Farrell Tata. She has an 83% chance of winning. But Chaz, do you think if there's a blue wave, particularly in some of these traditionally Republican suburban areas in Hampton Roads, Democrats could pull up the upset here?14:36.99Chaz Nuttycombeif If she loses, we're talking about the establishment of Spanberger machine in Virginia, and Virginia is no longer competitive in these off years.14:48.58Chaz Nuttycombewould be astonished if she lost. The Dems aren't really doing anything in that seat. But, you know, this the the but is and I think that is is kind of why there is that little bit of a chance, even though the Dems like aren't really doing anything to support their candidate there, it looks like, is that you have quite a bit of territory here that, you know, is wealthy and white and educated that moved to the left.15:11.26Chaz NuttycombeBut this district did did still swing to the right. And that's because you have quite a bit of minority precincts that saw drops and turn out and move to the right in 2024 on the present level.15:26.26Chaz NuttycombeSo this district did swing to the right a little bit. I think Tata is taking her race seriously. if If she loses, it's the end of the Virginia Republican Party.15:36.69Sam ShiraziWell, that's a pretty dramatic thing to say. So I think we'll just have to wait and see. I agree. It's relatively unlikely, but should be interesting to see the final result. right. We're almost done here, but I did want to talk about three more districts. There's House District 34.15:51.88Sam ShiraziThis is in Harrisonburg in the Shenandoah Valley. The incumbent is Tony Wilt. You give him an 84% chance of winning. However, Democrats did make a late announcement that they are competing in this seat. I mean, Chaz, why do you think the Democrats are competing here if Tony Wilt has such a high chance of winning?16:10.10Chaz NuttycombeOK, OK, so, yeah, if you look at that piece that we did on the supermajority three of which this is the seat that decides the supermajority, it was like r plus five in 2019, I think maybe r plus four.16:24.57Chaz Nuttycombeit's in its House of Delegates vote. you can see that in our calculations in that article. yeah, I mean, uh, Tony will is, is he still an electoral over performer, um, a little bit. He's not like, you know, Bobby orc level or anything.16:39.83Chaz Nuttycombeand you know, it will be interesting to see, like, I mean, the Democrats have never really worked in Harrisonburg. They've worked in Blacksburg, uh, and, and trying to get, you know, students out.16:51.29Chaz NuttycombeUh, and, and they were working in Williamsburg last time. Right. and you know, like Fredericksburg, um, you know, for William and Mary and university, Mary wash. so it'll be interesting to see what they're able to do in Harrisonburg.17:08.52Chaz Nuttycombeso with the college students there. I don't know the strength of the JMU Dems, you know, like Harrisonburg, would which is where James Madison University is, is the Democratic base here. And then you it's surrounded by rural areas and like, you know, some suburbs or exurbs from the city proper.17:25.40Chaz NuttycombeSo I think one of the things that if this seat did flip, would be because of, you know, opposite of like, you know, open chain winning, right?17:35.86Chaz NuttycombeIf this seat flipped, then Gen Z is on track to go millennial mode, you know, terms of in terms of how it votes in the long term. would be a very pretty big upset.17:47.77Chaz NuttycombeIt'll be interesting to see if the Dems actually put money in their opponent or in the Wilt's opponent here these new campaign finance reports come out. We'll we'll see. We'll see how much they're putting in there.17:59.55Sam ShiraziOkay, well, we got a couple last seats in Southside, Virginia. There's House to District 83. The current incumbent Republican is Otto Wachsman. He has an 86% chance of winning according to the forecast.18:13.57Sam ShiraziI mean, Chaz, is this part of Southside basically done for the Democrats?18:18.06Chaz NuttycombeI think so. Yeah. I mean, this, this district flipped in 2021. It's much more Republican. And not only that, but like Otto Washman is one of the most popular Republican incumbents in the house. Right. And it's, you know, he's a local pharmacist and everything.18:30.61Chaz Nuttycombeand He's in the Democrats aren't doing anything there. i Yes, there is, because it it when you have these presidential results where, you know, the rural black voters come out every four years, it's a little more Democratic. So, yeah, there's like a 14 percent chance he loses ah you put all that together. he's He's not going anywhere.18:49.50Chaz NuttycombeI don't think I would i would be astonished. He's too popular and Democrats are too inept at turning out rural black voters in Virginia.18:57.90Sam ShiraziWell, there is one other Southside district, and this is the last district. Thanks to everyone who stayed with us. So this is House District 49. The incumbent is actually retiring, but the Republicans still have an 88% chance of winning.19:11.55Sam ShiraziChaz, do you think this could be a sleeper surprise because it's an open seat and I think the Democratic candidate got an endorsement from a local police union?19:20.66Chaz NuttycombeYeah, that was really interesting. And that's what kind of put this on the map for me. So, yeah, this is this is the Danville district and goes to South Boston in Halifax County. It's got a little bit of Pennsylvania County. Long time, very, very popular incumbent, Danny Marshall, deciding to not seek reelection.19:36.09Chaz NuttycombeAnd but the district, you know, hasn't voted for. Well, I think it voted for Mark Warner in 2020. If I recall correctly, it may have because Mark Warner did really well in Danville area and South Side.19:49.07Chaz Nuttycombeso, but yeah, the Dem, uh, who is a former city council member, a doctor who, uh, is, is, I mean, i was told by a Republican,20:02.27Chaz Nuttycombethat they think that the candidate, the Republican candidate here, i forget his name, because, you know, that when you're when we're getting into this territory, I don't really keep him up on the race.20:11.98Chaz NuttycombeSo remember I don't remember. I think Gary Miller is the dem because I, i yeah, the Virginia Police Benevolent Association or something endorsed him. it was really interesting. But yeah, the apparently the Republican and a candidate here is not that strong.20:26.53Chaz NuttycombeBut like, And I'm not sure if like if I mean, yeah, like Gary Miller is like a doctor and whatnot, but he also ran against Danny Marshall and got walloped in 2013. But also Danny Marshall is Danny Marshall.20:39.66Chaz NuttycombeSo and and here's the thing is that it's it's hard but because like Democrats haven't they didn't contest this. And I want to say. Yeah, they didn't contest it in 2017. They didn't care contest against Marshall.20:52.79Chaz NuttycombeThey didn't contest him against 2021. So in terms of like quality in the forecast of trying to get this seat, it's hard. Like I had to kind of Frankenstein in my formula for this.21:04.11Chaz NuttycombeIt's like a very likely R seat in my formula and looks like it's about the same in the forecast, which, you know, uses a little bit of my my formula for waiting. So, but it yeah, I mean, and again, like ah ah Democrats are not really good at turning out black voters south of the Appomattox.21:20.41Chaz Nuttycombebut Besides like, you know, they they do okay in Hampton Roads proper. Again, we'll see if spam workers liability on that. But yeah, I guess that's kind of like a dark horse.21:30.72Chaz Nuttycombei would I would be astonished at that seat flipped. So it should be a Republican hold. but it, I could see the Dem actually maybe outperforming this just because I, I'm not quite confident in the formula I have. Cause I had kind of to Frankenstein things cause the Democrats didn't bother to contest Danny Marshall cause he was so popular.21:50.37Chaz Nuttycombeso we'll, we'll see if like, you know, uh, insider wisdom of like, well, good, ah good ah good D Dem or good, good D candidate, bad R candidate and, and whatnot actually make an impact or whether,22:04.63Chaz NuttycombeThe Democrat, Virginia Democratic Party's piss poor track record of getting out black voters outside of the urban crescent makes this makes it break this district. it's It's a competition between the two.22:19.27Sam ShiraziGot it. Well, you know, I really appreciate you taking the time to go through all those districts. I think if anyone really wants a primer on this year's House of Delegates elections, this is a good podcast to listen to.22:30.20Sam Shirazijazz So, Chaz, thanks so much for taking the time to come on.22:33.92Chaz NuttycombeYeah, thank you so much. Thank you. I appreciate you letting me yap. Some of these districts, you know, are quite long and I'm very passionate about this chamber. This is the very first.22:45.18Chaz NuttycombeThis is this is what got me in the state legislatures, that Virginia House. So, you know, I talked for as briefly as I can. i highly recommend ah your users go visit our site and see the, you know, thousands, a few thousand words i'm going to be writing on each of these districts.23:02.94Chaz Nuttycombeand Allie will be writing or managing out the writing, uh, over the next ah couple weeks.23:08.02Sam ShiraziYeah, i certainly second that. Check out State Navigate, a great website. And I'm sure we'll have Chaz on before the election. And yeah, this has been Federal Fallout. And thanks, everyone, for listening. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com