Episode 356 – Fred Brown, COVID Update, Schools Opening, Listener Questions

Thank you for hanging out with us. This is the it and the D show. We made it all the way up to episode 356. Wait, wait, wait. So that's Bob's wrong. Plus 340, right. Been wrong for 340. We are broadcasting live from our quarantine homes. This is Bob, the sales guy that is Dave. The geek Randy. I do the Twitters is doing the Twitters. Find us [email protected] because we are it in the D a all these many years later, still, still are not. And we love you,       but Hey, America is ready to get back to work, but to win the new economy, you need every advantage to succeed. Smart companies run on net suite by Oracle, the world's number one cloud business system. But net suite you'll have visibility and control over your financials, HR inventory e-commerce and more everything you need all in one place, whether you're doing a million or a hundred millions in sales NetSuite, lets you manage every penny with precision. 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I promise myself the next time we had Fred on, I would have ominous music cued up for the background and I failed If you don't know who that faces in the bottom left, or if you're listening to the podcast after we are joined by the illustrious one, um, one of our, the best guests we've ever had, and he's been gracious enough to be on the show for a third time. Mr. Fred Brown, sir. How are you? And now you didn't need to wear a tie on our behalf. I got, uh, I, I, I was meeting the appropriate standards, so I appreciate, you know, what we thought that everything was kind of making sense. Right? You made, you brought the world to our fingertips. You started to make sense and give a stats. And it seems like since you left us, the planet has completely on that right. Going on. Oh man. Yeah. So yeah, the covert writer is really the tough one. It turns out, uh, we're we're finding out the good news is we're finding out more about it. The Bad news is that we're not managing very well, especially in the Americas. So if you look at the coven outbreak, You don't say [inaudible] Okay. 60% of it between kind of a U S and Brazil. And uh, yeah, we, we made, we made some, some tactical areas. We, and it's just completely unforgiving, you know, this is about nature. So if you, you know, if you make a mistake with nature, it's just, it's just merciless and that's, that's where we're at. We're at right now. Uh, I ran some numbers just so you, if you're interested in for sure. And, and um, yeah, you know what I, uh, hold on, Honestly, I feel like we're seeing the, basically the effect of the numbers that you showed us the last or the first time you were on where this is not a one, like even, okay. You hear about, you know, the, uh, the R T value and it's okay. It's just over one. That doesn't mean that for every like one person infects one person we're seeing that skyrocketing exponential growth rate right now, which is super concerning. Yeah, it is. If you know, the epidemiology is about numbers, eyebrows, and numbers, everyone's kind of coming in at about 200,000 through, uh, September one. That's a lot of people in, out of state to die right now, death count. And by end of next year, Wait a minute, wait, wait, wait, hold on. I want to make sure I understood. Okay. So 200 that by September. Yeah. September one, we can do it Only at 130,000 now. Yeah. Wow. Spike and a couple two to three weeks, but if we're not lucky and it keeps going, then it will be definitely I have a tip. It spikes like you think the, you know, at around about three weeks in terms of new cases, then we have to wait four to five weeks for the death rates and, uh, and the, and the decline. And so September one likely, you know, certain kind of labor day timeframe, it'll be about a thousand. And, and unfortunately if we run the numbers, you know, for what we're expecting by the end of next year, by end of 2021, uh, even if we have a partially available vaccine, and even if we do some smart things, uh, we'll probably be close to a million. So, and I guess that actually feeds into a, like one of the questions here, what he said. Yes, I, yes, I did. Yeah. Um, I'm trying not to drink more right now that, that, uh, that no, but like, so like that, that's one of the things that cause, and this dovetails with what we were just talking about, which is why I want to talk about that is I'm seeing a lot of, I don't know if they're bad math or uninformed arguments that are saying, okay, all these, we're seeing all this skyrocketing in cases, but everybody says the death rate is declining, so it's no big deal. Right. So, and I've, I've Fred, I've done my part. I've, I've tried, but I am only me. So tell people why that, the case, like why are we seeing, you know, 15,000 a day and you know, Florida and Arizona, everybody else, but we're not seeing that one to one ratio yet. Yeah. Well it turns out that the death rate overall, compared to what we're seeing out there is to planning, uh, slightly. And that's because, uh, it's a younger population. Uh, we're getting a little bit better treating this. Uh, and, uh, and, uh, and, uh, we are testing a little bit, a little bit more. And so the death rate comparatively, um, uh, is, is it's about we, we think the don't work, we're still not sure what the exact death rate is. Uh, we think it's around between 0.7 and 1.25, give you a sense of that. Hulu is it's 0.01. So there's not, you get the 0.1%. You're talking about something that's 10 times more Debby than the flu. The reason that we're not sure it's because of the, there's a, there's a mutation, that's a third. So if you look at Chicago, Northwestern just reported, they're actually three different screens in Chicago. And one of the strains is about four and a half times more, uh, more effective than the other two. Uh, and so what we're, and unfortunately it also goes into the nose a lot more. Uh, the original Chinese buyers sort of split into one, and I know it's, but equally this one, but for folks in the nose, and unfortunately the nasal STEM you'll have faculty STEM. Uh, it allows that that particular virus to get into the brain more effectively. So we're seeing a lot more central nervous system results, uh, as well as this new virus with, for transmittable, uh, new strain, we call the complaints played three, uh, in this case has moved into the population. The next year is more prevalent than the original Springs were. So we're having some challenges, just kind of understanding some of the basics about the epidemiology of the, uh, of the virus. And it could be, yes. What was some of the new information coming out that all the autopsies that are getting returned are, uh, an abnormal amount of blood clotting? Is that a newer strain or what's a, what's the story with that? So, and that actually dovetails into the question that I was going to ask, which, you know, basically it comes down to, you know, so we're only, only, we're only a few months into this relatively speaking, you know? So, I mean, I think that's the hard part is what don't we know yet. And like, you know, like when it comes to longterm effects and what are we still learning? So believe it or not, when you look at the number of resolve cases versus the number of the people who are still sick, uh, there are about 53% of our population that still was reporting, being sick. There are unresolved cases, so they're, they're out of the hospital, but they're still having symptoms that are similar to what they've had in the past that got them into the hospital in the first place. And a lot of patients are flying back a month, two months afterwards and showing viral load increases again. So it's sort of pumped down viral, comes out in little peaks, two to three months out. And we're, I feel that that's a re-infection with some doc cause they're saying, or which means that, and unfortunately in the reinfection, but they're seeing if they, if they are true that the Nunes system, uh, you know, develops antibodies, you have some antibodies for about three months apparently. And if you've got a fairly decent medication and then the antibodies just appears, we will, aren't saying, Hey, I got some antibodies and they're going out and getting infected. And it turns out the second time you get this thing, it can be extremely dangerous and even worse, worse than the first, then your first bout of it that's happened three or four times. I don't have it go. We're looking at that pretty carefully, Like chickenpox, like, like if you get like a mild case, it might not stick and you might not have the immunity and then you get like, and then the sec, and then if you get it again, it's Oh my God. So much worse That can happen with chickenpox moving to shingles. That's exactly right. And that's a daily fevers, another one where you get at once and that's what have, you know, you're out there. If you can get anybody to get again, it just keeps you like a ton of bricks. They need to rename both of those, by the way, because every take me see it, like I got shingles, it's kind like, Oh boy, I hope everything's okay. Like Lyme disease or like, Oh, well, you know, what'd you drink too much, like too many Corona, like, you know, anyway. Um, but no, I'll go back to the blood clotting. Oh, I'm sorry. Yes. The blood. So here here's what happens....