Episode 36: History isn’t on the side of bulls, or is it?

With all the talk of statistics in relation to the equity market move after the first rate cut, history is not on the side of a bullish move after the Fed’s first rate cut was 50bps, with the last 2 occasions seeing the S&P500 fall 39% and 54% over the following 12-18 months and the Fed underestimating the spike in unemployment by half. Both occasions ended in a recession. However, this time the Fed seem to more ahead of the curve than in 2001 & 2007 which may result in a softer landing than previous occasions. Below show the market move if a recession is avoided