Episode 362: Stagflation Signals, AI's Cash Burn Crisis, and the Fed's Impossible Position

Brian breaks down the emerging stagflation regime reshaping markets and tech investment. With inflation at 3.8%, GDP growth soft at 2%, and the 30-year Treasury yield hitting 5%, capital is rotating hard away from speculative growth stocks toward hard assets with pricing power. Amazon's free cash flow dropped 95% YoY as hyperscalers pour unprecedented sums into AI infrastructure—Meta's 2026 capex guidance now sits at $125-145B—raising critical questions about ROI timelines. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces an impossible policy position: no room to cut rates without stoking inflation, no room to hike without crushing growth. The Iran conflict keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and Brent crude above $90/barrel locks this dynamic in place. The takeaway: the era of cheap money chasing speculative future value is over. The new playbook favors physical assets, pricing power, and cash generation. For AI builders, capital efficiency just became non-negotiable. Plus: critical security update deadline for OpenAI macOS users—June 12th. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.