Episode 37: How Dems Flipped 13 Seats in House of Delegates

Hi, everyone. I’m Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode, we will go over the flips the Democrats made in the House of Delegates and kind of go race by race to see why the Democrats were able to flip the seats and what lessons could be learned from each district. And the reason I wanted to do this, i think there’s been a lot of interest in the specific...00:21.63Sam Shiraziflips the Democrats made, the number of gains they made, and some of them were pretty surprising. And, you know, my last episode, I talked about a few of them, but I wanted to give an overview of every single flip.00:32.46Sam ShiraziAnd the way I’m going to do this, I’m actually going to go from the most surprising flips to the least surprising, because I think usually the way you do this, you go from most likely the flip to least likely the flip.00:42.87Sam ShiraziNow, that’s before the election. After the election, you know the results. We can kind of go back and try to think through, okay, how did the Democrats flip these seats? What does that potentially mean for the midterms and maybe lessons the Democrats can learn in each of these specific seats?00:57.32Sam ShiraziOkay, so I will start with off with House District 66. So this is south of Fredericksburg along I-95 Spotsylvania County and Caroline County.01:09.99Sam ShiraziAnd this, I think, was the biggest shock of the night. The reason you had an incumbent, Bobby Oroc, who had been there for a long time. He was first elected to the House of Delegates in 1989. He was the dean of the Virginia House of Delegates.01:22.87Sam ShiraziAnd he was defeated by Nicole Cole, who is on the Spotsylvania County School Board. And she flipped the seat by about 4%, which you know is not even super close at the end of the day. I mean, this one, Democrats did a good job.01:38.03Sam ShiraziThis was a Trump district. They won it by 4%. And I kind of want to think through, okay, what happened in this specific district? we What you see here, this this is south of Fredericksburg along I-95, and this has seen a lot of growth because people are looking for Affordable housing, lower cost of living.01:57.96Sam ShiraziThey’re in the kind of it’s on the outer edges of northern Virginia, exurban area. Traditionally has been more rural, more Republican. i think this is the type of district where working class voters, particularly working working class voters who are not white. So the district, I think, is about 20 percent African-American.02:14.54Sam ShiraziThe affordability issue, I think, is important for them. The Democrats were able to make gains on that. And also, I think Nicole Cole was able to bring out black voters in this district. And that was an important part of her success.02:26.24Sam ShiraziSo we’re seeing when we’re thinking about the midterms in 2026, we can kind of think through, okay where can the Democrats make some gains? And I think in kind of exurban working class areas where people are feeling the pinch in terms of cost of living, that’s the type of gains they can make. So and if you think about 2018 when the Democrats flipped the house, they made a lot of gains in wealthier suburbs, kind of historically Republican areas that were wealthier suburbs.02:54.57Sam ShiraziNow, most of those seats have flipped. So there isn’t as many opportunities for the Democrats to flip seats in wealthier suburbs where the Democrats may have more of an opportunity are in more working class exurbs that are diverse, maybe have black population, Asian population, Hispanic population.03:12.23Sam ShiraziThose types of areas I think are going to be really interesting to watch in 2026. twenty twenty six And these are kind of outside major metro areas. So for example, this district is outside D.C.,03:24.01Sam Shirazikind of further down I-95. And obviously federal fallout, the district is also impacted by what’s going on with the federal cuts in DC. So I think that was part of the equation in this district. So anyways, I spent a little bit more time on this district because i think it was really interesting thinking about an exurban district and can the Democrats build on some of those exurban gains they made 2025 in 2026. Yeah.03:49.11Sam ShiraziAll right, now let’s move down to a different district. I would say this is maybe the second most surprising flip of the night, and that is House District 69. This is in the Hampton Roads area around Yorktown.04:01.08Sam ShiraziThe incumbent, Chad Green, was unopposed in 2023, but he ended up losing to Democrat Mark Downey. And we had Dr. Downey on my podcast earlier in the year, and you can go listen to that episode if you’re interested.04:16.06Sam ShiraziI think a few things to think about this district. You know, when he was on the podcast, Dr. Downey, he talked about being a doctor. And I think doctors generally are strong candidates for either party because they’re known in the community and people just trust doctors. So I think that was an advantage the Democrats had.04:32.50Sam ShiraziAnd he ended up getting about a 3% win in this district, which I think was pretty surprising because again, this is a Trump district the Democrats were able to flip. And I had flagged all the way back in 2018 my podcast with him that there’s this kind of weird thing in the district where it goes across the river into Gloucester and Gloucester is this red part of Virginia, whereas most the district is more in the blue parts of York County.04:56.53Sam ShiraziLong story short, I think Dr. Downey got a big win in York County. York has a lot of military installations, again, federal fallout. You know, the Republican did well in Gloucester. It just wasn’t enough to overcome the federal fallout in the military area.05:11.97Sam ShiraziAnd again, listen lessons for 2026. Military dependent areas traditionally tend to be Republican because obviously a lot of people in the military are more conservative leaning.05:23.79Sam ShiraziBut they may be feeling the impact of some of the federal fallout. And so if the Democrats are able to kind of tap into that sentiment with work with military voters, I think that’s going to be a big advantage potentially in the 2026 midterms.05:38.92Sam ShiraziAnd obviously, as the midterms come up, we don’t know what the final maps are going to look like in Virginia, but... The first district and the second district both have a lot of military presence. And, you know, whatever the final outcome looks like in those districts, I think that’s going to be a big opportunity for the Democrats to flip those seats based on potential gains with military voters.06:00.70Sam ShiraziOkay, now let’s go to a different type of district. This is House District 73. This is in the Richmond suburbs in Chesterfield County. The incumbent, Mark Early, he lost re-election to Leslie Mehta.06:14.51Sam ShiraziAnd the final margin will be around 3% in this district, a little over 3%, maybe closer to 4%. And I think what was interesting about this district is this part of Chesterfield has been traditionally a very...06:28.73Sam ShiraziRepublican area. And I think what the Democrats were able to do here they were able to get a lot of Spanberger voters at the top of the ticket to vote for Leslie Mehta at the House of Delegates level. So there wasn’t enough ticket splitting where the Republicans could win in this district.06:44.45Sam ShiraziAnd I think the lesson here is for 2026, the Democrats in these suburban districts are doing well. We all know the Democrats have made a lot of gains in the suburbs, in the Trump era.06:55.30Sam ShiraziThere are still some suburbs that are still... Republican leaning, but I think in this second go round of the trump and the second Trump administration, I think there’s a possibility that a lot of those districts start becoming more and more Democratic because obviously Democrats are doing well with college educated, wealthy voters.07:14.36Sam ShiraziAnd I think specifically for this district, I think it’ll be interesting to watch in 2027 when the state Senate is up because there is a very potentially competitive state Senate district in this area in Chesterfield County that again has traditionally been Republican.07:29.51Sam ShiraziAnd we’ll see if the Democrats are able to flip that state Senate seat in 2027. So again, Democrats doing well in the suburbs, not a huge surprise. I think the thing that was surprising about this race was everyone kind of have a feeling at some point this district was going to flip.07:43.73Sam ShiraziA lot of people in the back of their head kind of thought, okay, is this the year that the district flips? And yeah, it ended up being the year07:50.89Sam ShiraziOkay, now let’s head back up to Northern Virginia in House District 30. This is where the incumbent Gary Higgins was defeated by Democratic challenger John McAuliffe. he McAuliffe is going to win by around two points when all the votes are in.08:06.89Sam ShiraziAnd we also had John McAuliffe on earlier this year on the podcast, actually pretty recently. So if you want to go ahead and listen to that episode, I think it’s pretty interesting.08:17.90Sam ShiraziOkay, so this is in Western Laod and Western Fakir. Obviously, there was federal fallout. That was part of the formula in this district. I talked about in my last episode the kind of outreach to Indian voters and South Asian voters in this district, the kind of eastern part of the district that...08:35.19Sam Shiraziis becoming more suburban, has seen a lot of growth. I think that was part of the equation. But the thing I wanted to talk about this district specifically was data centers. So John McAuliffe, he made data centers a big part of the campaign.08:46.86Sam ShiraziYou’re hearing more and more about data centers because they’re taking up a lot of land. They’re taking up a lot of energy. And I think specifically the Democrats, I think are going to increasingly be running against data centers because it it touches them on a lot of issues like affordability,09:02.55Sam ShiraziI think John McAuliffe ran a really smart campaign, specifically not just, you know, this is driving up your energy bills, although he did talk about that. He talked about kind of trying to keep farms together and talking about kind of more rural issues in this district that is still kind of rural. So I think he ran a smart campaign in a district that slightly voted for Trump.09:21.26Sam ShiraziAnd I think it’s it’s one of those districts where the Democrats, if they’re looking how to win in kind of an exurban slash rural district, in 2026, I think there’s a lot of lessons they can learn from John McCaulough.09:33.18Sam ShiraziAll right, let’s stay in Northern Virginia for another seat. This is House District 64. The incumbent, Paul Milday, lost to Democratic challenger Stacey Carroll by about 5%. And I think this was surprising because...09:48.44Sam ShiraziMost people thought this district election would be close, but Stacey Carroll won by a comfortable margin, and she was another candidate that we had on the podcast. so if you want to go listen to that episode, a little bit similar to House District 66 in that kind of more outer edges of Northern Virginia.10:05.59Sam ShiraziI guess the thing to emphasize with this district, kind of suburban, exurban district, pretty diverse. So traditionally, this district has been thought of as a very so kind of safe Republican area.10:17.66Sam ShiraziBut increasingly, people are coming here for affordability reasons, diverse community, large black population, large Hispanic population. And I think Stacey Carroll, she focused on getting out those voters who maybe don’t show up a lot in these elections, particularly the state elections. Maybe they’ll show up for a presidential election, but they don’t always vote for...10:34.91Sam Shiraziin the state elections. I think sta Stacey Carroll ran a smart campaign targeting those voters who don’t traditionally come out. And I think it’s a lesson to the Democrats for 2026 you you know If the Democrats are able to get out these mid and lower propensity voters, they might be able to flip some unexpected seats because the voters traditionally don’t come out in midterms. But if if they do, you can flip a lot of seats quickly if you can get all your voters out. So another lesson for the Democrats for 2026.11:05.59Sam ShiraziOkay, we might as well wrap up Northern Virginia while we’re at it with one more House seat. This is House District 22. This is in middle Prince William County. The incumbent Ian Lovejoy lost to Democratic challenger Elizabeth Guzman, who makes a comeback and will be back in the House of Delegates.11:21.91Sam ShiraziAnd I think the big surprise in this district was Guzman’s margin. So I think when all the votes are in, she’s going to be winning by more than 9%. And I think that was a really big surprise because I think most people thought, okay, maybe Guzman will win, but it’ll be a close race.11:33.84Sam ShiraziBut I mean, this was not really that close at the end of the day. And think there’s a lot of factors you can look at. Federal fallout for sure hit this district. I also think Elizabeth Guzman, I talked about it in my previous episode, she did a good job getting out and reaching out to the Hispanic community.11:48.58Sam ShiraziSimilar kind of dynamic where a diverse district, but maybe those voters don’t always come out. And I think it just goes to show you that having a candidate who has maybe a more diverse background, able to speak the language of some of the voters in the district can help.12:04.21Sam ShiraziSo I think that was an interesting dynamic. And I guess the last thing on this district, I had flagged previously that Elizabeth Guzman certainly comes from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. And I think there is a kind of thought among the Democratic establishment, for lack of the better word, or maybe the consulting class that if you have a swing district, you just got to get the most generic, moderate person you could possibly find to run.12:28.06Sam ShiraziI think what Elizabeth Guzman proved in this district that you can be a you can be a progressive, you can be from a different background, immigrant background, and win in a very competitive district. And you can win big. Like this wasn’t close at the end of the day. And so I think, you know, every district’s different. You don’t want to necessarily...12:49.13Sam Shirazido one playbook for every single district. But I think this fear that some Democrats have running progressive voters, at least in this district, didn’t come to fruition because Elizabeth Guzman was able to win.13:01.08Sam ShiraziAnd now you can argue, well, that’s just the top of the ticket. People are just voting straight ticket. And I’m sure that was part of it. But at the end of the day, like, The fact that she was a progressive didn’t seem to hurt her in this district. And maybe you could argue it helped her reach some more diverse voters. And so anyways, very interesting race in Middle Prince William County.13:19.18Sam ShiraziAll right. Now let’s go down to the New River Valley in Southwest Virginia with House District 41. The incumbent, Chris Obenshain, lost to Democratic challenger Lily Franklin.13:31.86Sam ShiraziNow, at the time of recording, the same-day registrations in this district have not been allocated, but I think Lily Franklin will probably end up winning between 4% to 5%. which is a pretty healthy victory in this district, given that it was a Trump district. So I think Lily Franklin did a really good job in this district, getting out students. I talked about that before.13:52.71Sam ShiraziI think the thing that Democrats can learn is that in order, if you have a college in a swing district, you need to get on the ground quickly and organize.14:02.71Sam ShiraziThere are Democratic groups that can organize on campuses. So for example, there’s NextGen America that does a organization and registering voters on campus. So I think that’s an important part of the equation.14:16.54Sam ShiraziI think if a candidate is younger, like Lily Franklin is younger, she can reach those voters. She kind of knew what it was like to be in college. She knew how to connect with the local college Democrats at Virginia Tech, use them to register voters, get them out.14:30.93Sam ShiraziAnd I think the thing that was really... flagged this in my previous episode, but I talked about... Virginia has same-day registration. And same-day registration is a good tool if you are not registered to vote and you need to go on election day and register to vote.14:44.59Sam ShiraziBut it is not... the same as registering to vote ahead of time and voting a regular ballot because same-day registrations are provisionals. The other thing with same-day registrations, they take a lot of time on election day because someone’s got to go there.14:57.84Sam ShiraziThey got to fill out an extra form. they have to fill out the voter registration form. The election worker has to review it. I mean it just slows down the system. And so... I think what was smart that Lily Franklin did is she didn’t just say, all right, well, we’ll just get a bunch of same-day registrations on Election Day and everyone will go vote on Election Day. I think she and her campaign knew that they needed to register people ahead of time. They needed to get certain voters to go vote early so the lines aren’t crazy on Election Day.15:24.81Sam ShiraziAnd I think the big payoff for her was she was able to win on Election Day. You know, she didn’t have to wait until all the provisionals were counted. So all that’s to say is I think, you know, there’s a lot of lessons Democrats can win about campus organizing in some of these swing districts in 2026.15:39.18Sam ShiraziMaybe the campus is going to be the deciding factor in some of these really close races. And they’re often this kind of untapped pool of voters who don’t usually show up in a midterm. But if the Democrats can get them organized and get them to vote, I think that be a important thing for the Democrats to do in the15:53.71Sam ShiraziAll right, now let’s go to another district in the Richmond area. This is House District 82. The incoming Kim Taylor was knocked off by Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams in a race that didn’t end up being that close at the end. I think when all the votes are in, Kimberly Pope Adams will probably win by close to 8%.16:11.87Sam ShiraziAnd this was a very close seat in 2023, but Kimberly Pope Adams got the bigger win this time. I talked about this district last time. Getting out Black voters in this district was something that the Kimberly Pope Adams campaign focused on.16:26.36Sam ShiraziAnd I think... It’s important for Democrats not to forget black voters and how important a part of the Democratic coalition they are. I think it’s, you know, you’re often trying to chase the swing voter or trying to win back white working class voters from Trump.16:41.57Sam ShiraziAnd obviously that’s important. You don’t want to forget any voter. You want to reach out to every single voter. But Consistently, the the group that is the most loyal to the Democratic Party are black voters. And every voter you get out, I mean, usually Democrats go 90% plus for the Democrats. So every you know if you get out black voters, those are just margins you are racking up for the Democratic Party. And I think sometimes...17:07.47Sam ShiraziThere is kind of this failure to appreciate that the challenge with those voters is not that the Republicans are going to be be able to win their votes. It’s just that they might not show up. And I do think i’ve I’ve heard in the past, there’s this mentality that and Democrats only show up on Election Day. They don’t they take our votes for granted.17:24.28Sam Shiraziand i think the Democratic Party should not take the Black community for granted. And in Virginia, I think because of a lot of organization, like the Black Caucus, both in the state Senate and the House of Delegates is going to grow, partly because Ghazal Hashmi is going to be resigning. And so likely the her successor will be...17:42.90Sam Shirazianother black state senator. So and then the House of Delegates, a bunch of black House of Delegates members will be coming in. So I think in Virginia, the black caucus is becoming and has been is is going to become a more powerful force in the General Assembly.17:58.14Sam ShiraziAnd it’s just important for Democrats to remember all parts of their coalition. I think especially there was this temptation in, I guess, when the Democrats were making these huge gains in the suburbs to just be focusing on kind of wealthier college-educated suburbs. Like that’s where the Democrats need to rack up the votes. And obviously that’s important. You don’t want to take those voters for granted. But frankly, most of those voters end up showing up on midterms.18:20.18Sam ShiraziBut you don’t want to forget, you know, black voters are important. They are important in a lot of swing states, lot of swing districts and for the midterms. They might be deciding some of these elections. So just important for the Democrats not to forget that either.18:33.34Sam ShiraziOkay, let’s move over to another district. This is House District 75, the neighboring district from House District 82. The incumbent, Carrie Coyner, she was defeated by Democrat Lindsey Daughtry by about 6%. And I think this was an interesting scenario because...18:51.21Sam ShiraziMost people thought Kerry Coiner was this really strong incumbent. And I think there was a sense that there’s going to be a lot of ticket splitting. Like, sure, Spanberger is going to win the district. But Kerry Coiner, you know, she’s got a brand in the area. She’s going to survive. Like, there’s no way the Democrats can knock her off.19:06.35Sam ShiraziAnd at the end, it didn’t end up being that close. And I think the lesson here... perhaps for the midterms, is you know there’s no giant that can’t be slain necessarily in a tough environment.19:16.27Sam Shiraziyou know i will think about I’ll talk about Maine, Susan Collins. There’s you know a lot of trauma from 2020 when the Democrats were not able to defeat her. a you know If there is a really bad environment for the Republicans, I think a lot of incumbents could potentially lose and and potentially strong incumbents.19:32.10Sam ShiraziAnd so... you know If you are voting straight ticket or you are voting to send a message, if this becomes a referendum and the only thing on your mind is I want to vote against Donald Trump, you don’t really think too much about the specific individual. And I think it’s important for the Democrats to not necessarily fear any sort of incumbent as undefeatable in an in an environment potentially like 2026 could become. Because I think if the 2026 environment is like 2025, I think there are potentially incumbents that have not faced competitive elections in a long time who could be in danger. And I think it’s important for the Democrats to target seats where20:08.07Sam Shirazithey haven’t traditionally targeted it. And you know the 75th district in 2023, the Democrats kind of half-heartedly targeted it it. This time, obviously, it was a top-tier battleground. And the results showed that you know at the end of the day, like either the top of the ticket or the national environment was more important than any sort of specific candidate in this district.20:26.86Sam ShiraziAll right, let’s go down to Hampton Roads for House District 86. This is where incumbent A.C. Cardoza was defeated by Virgil Thornton. the The final margin was probably going to be around eight points. So definitely a big win for the Democrats in this swing district in Hampton Roads.20:47.87Sam ShiraziYou know, frankly, in 2023, again, the Democrats didn’t really contest this seat too seriously. This time they poured in a lot of money. I think here, An important lesson was, so AC Cardoza, he was first elected in a wave in 2021, and no one expected him to win in 2021. So there was not a whole lot of effort spent researching him.21:07.100Sam ShiraziAnd then in 2023, again, the Democrats didn’t really target the seat. They kind of half-heartedly tried. But the lesson here is, you know, you could potentially have a weak incumbent, even if the last few elections, the incumbents won.21:20.86Sam ShiraziIf they’re in a tough environment and the Democrats have never really targeted that incumbent, there is a potential that target that that incumbents pretty weak. And I think at the end of the day, AC Cardozo was a pretty weak incumbent.21:31.18Sam ShiraziThat became obvious. The margin makes it clear he was a pretty weak incumbent. And so I think, again, it’s important for the Democrats to think about. Not just the strong incumbents that they could potentially knock off in 2026, but kind of the weak incumbents that they haven’t taken a close look at.21:45.16Sam ShiraziMaybe 2026, it might make sense to take a closer look at some of these seats where potentially there’s a weak All right, almost wrapping things up. A few more districts. I will go to House District 89. This is, again, in Hampton Roads.21:57.56Sam ShiraziThe incumbent retired, so the Republican was Mike Lamine, but he was pretty soundly defeated by Karen Robbins Carnegie, who will win this race by almost 10%.22:08.12Sam Shiraziten percent Pretty pretty big result there for Carnegie. And, you know, this was the only open seat in a competitive election This year in Virginia. And I think the lesson here is open seats provide big opportunities.22:23.90Sam ShiraziNow, Baxter Ennis, you know, to be honest, wasn’t necessarily the strongest incumbent, but incumbents, people know them, they have better fundraising. And I think anytime you see an open seat on the table, it’s going to be a pretty strong target.22:36.57Sam ShiraziAnd so I think for the Democrats 2026, obviously, there’s going to be open seats. Focus on the open seats. Not a huge surprise, not like rocket science, but I do think this district showed that in an open seat, there is a lot less ticket splitting and people just end up voting straight ticket if there’s not an incumbent.22:51.92Sam ShiraziOkay, one last seat in Hampton Roads area, and this is House District 71. The incumbent, about Amanda Batten, ended up losing to Jessica Anderson. when all the votes are set in When all the votes are in, I would say that Jessica Anderson will win by about 6%.23:08.44Sam ShiraziAnd, you know, I think the one thing with Jessica Anderson is... She was very persistent. We’ve had a few candidates who ran in 2023 and lost and then ran in 2025 again. And so one of them was Kimberly Poe Adams. We talked about that seat. One of them was Lily Franklin.23:22.83Sam ShiraziAnd Jessica Anderson was another candidate in 2023. Frankly, I think given that it was a tougher environment for the Democrats, they didn’t take that seat seriously. But Jessica Anderson in 2023, she took the seat seriously.23:36.18Sam ShiraziShe kept it pretty close. She only lost by about 2% in 2023. so I think this time, Proof is in the pudding. She was able to show that this seat it was going to be competitive. The Democrats took it seriously.23:46.53Sam ShiraziJessica Anderson got a pretty healthy win in this district. I should have mentioned that Jessica Anderson came on the podcast very early at the beginning of the podcast. So if anyone’s interested, she can they can go and listen to her appearance on the Federal Fallout podcast.24:00.52Sam ShiraziAnd I think, you know, I guess at the end of the day, it’s just... the fact that she was persistent. And I had mentioned this in my interview with her. Jessica Anderson’s very good on social media, different platforms, things like TikTok.24:12.82Sam ShiraziI think Democrats can learn a lot from her about how to present yourself in public, maybe reach people where they are, not necessarily be... so guarded about different social medias. I mean, I know a lot of Democratic politicians who, you know, they don’t understand TikTok. Frankly, I don’t really understand TikTok. I think it’s for younger people, but, you know, you either get your staff or you try to figure it out because there are a lot of younger voters on TikTok. This district had William & Mary, lot of college students. They ended up showing up and voting. So again, i think it’s important for the Democrats to reach voters where they are. And I think Jessica Anderson did a good job in this district.24:49.67Sam ShiraziAll right, last district, and I appreciate everyone who’s stuck with me as we’ve gone through every single district the Democrats had flipped, and this is House District 57. So the incumbent David Owen lost to Democrat May Navar in perhaps the least shocking result of the night, and May Navar is going to get a big win at the end of the day.25:08.63Sam ShiraziShe is going to win by over 11%. I think the lesson for this district, I mean, not to take anything away from May Navar, she ran a good campaign. She was a strong candidate. At some point, yeah you know, the district is going to be the environment’s tough. a Certain districts are just gone.25:35.85Sam ShiraziI think the one thing, maybe a lesson for the Republicans, i haven’t talked a lot about what the Republicans can learn, is you have to be realistic. like you know You may want to save an incumbent, but if it’s not there, the district is gone. There’s no point in spending money in this district. and you know i I don’t want second-guess the Republicans, but they should have triaged David Owen. i mean David Owen did his best. He ran his campaign, but there was no way he was going to win this year.26:01.64Sam Shiraziand I noted in the last finance report that the Republicans were still spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on David Olin. Didn’t make a whole lot of sense. You know, you could argue like at the grand scheme of things, like if if they shifted some money to other races, it probably wouldn’t have mattered.26:17.28Sam ShiraziAnd that’s probably true. This wasn’t like millions and millions of dollars they spent on this race. But if you’re talking about 2026 Senate or congressional races, I mean, you are going to be spending millions of dollars potentially on incumbents.26:29.07Sam ShiraziAnd if if they can’t win and there’s no viable path, you have to be realistic. You cannot just kind of say, well, you know, let’s let’s you know but let’s try to save the seat. I mean, at some point, the environment is what it is and you have to be realistic. And I think it’s important...26:44.52Sam Shirazifor the Republicans to understand sometimes where things are. And I think the the Virginia elections, new Jersey elections were a bit of a wake up call. We’ll see how much the Republicans change their strategy, which districts they’re focusing on.26:57.60Sam ShiraziBut very clearly this district was going flip no matter what. So anyways, that is the House of Delegates flips. that happened in Virginia. It’ll be interesting to see all these new delegates coming in what they’re going to do in the new General Assembly and how they are going to fill out the different committees.27:15.84Sam ShiraziI guess the one thing I should note, there’s already been talk about 2027, and i know it’s hard to think about. think the Democrats are not done trying to flip seats. I think they are going to go on the offense in 2027, maybe get some of these seats that were close this time, but the Democrats didn’t fully invest in But one thing I should say, I mean, some of the seats I’ve talked about are probably going to be off the board. Like, for example, House District 57, I don’t think is going to be competitive in 2027.27:40.54Sam ShiraziAnd I don’t think Republicans are going to target it. But some of these seats obviously could be. And some of them were pretty close. And so... 2027 in Virginia is going to be interesting. Democrats are going to have to play defense, but they’re also going to go on the offense. This year, the Democrats were pretty much 100% on offense because they didn’t really need to play defense.27:56.77Sam ShiraziI think 2027 potentially could be a different environment. May not be as blue. We’ll see. Also, there’s no governor’s race. So it’s possible some of these lower propensity voters, the Democrats got out, may not show up in 2027.28:10.13Sam ShiraziSo definitely a long ways off, but House Delegates, super interesting. had flagged that for most of the election, most people were not following the House Delegates. But because Democrats got such a big win, they flipped 13 seats. i think at the end, everyone kind of took notice of the Virginia House Delegates. And I’m glad they got the attention it deserved because these races are important.28:29.27Sam ShiraziAnd yeah, anyway, so... A lot going on in the Virginia elections. I will keep going with the podcast. i don’t Like I said, I don’t think I’m going to keep it on forever, but a lot to unpack, and I’ll continue unpacking it, and I may have some guests on to see what makes sense in terms of just debriefing the election. i appreciate everyone who’s been listening. This is Federal Fallout, and I’ll join you next time. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com