Episode 38: Treasury at 4.14% — The Sweet Spot for CRE Deal Flow

Welcome back to What's Hot What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Wednesday, February 11th, 2026. Today — the 10-year Treasury and what it signals for CRE. 🔥 What's Hot — Treasury Stability Unlocking Deals: 10-year Treasury at 4.14% today — down from 4.22% just yesterday. That's a meaningful move: we've dropped nearly 40 basis points from the 4.51% level a year ago. Key signal: Stability in the 4.0 to 4.3% range is exactly what CRE needs — predictability over absolute levels. Transaction velocity surging: Q4 2025 volumes hit $185.8 billion — up 30% year-over-year. Full year 2025 transactions totaled $545.3 billion — up 23% versus 2024. Multifamily investment hit $165.5 billion — a three-year high. Colliers forecasting 15-20% increase in sales activity for 2026 as institutional capital returns. Cap rate spreads remain attractive: averaging 200-300 basis points above Treasuries. Dallas-Fort Worth led 2025 with $22.3 billion in volume — up 6.6%. San Francisco Bay Area followed at $20.5 billion — up 24.6%. Miami volume soared 34.7% — deal count jumped 15.5%. ❄️ What's Not — Rate Cuts Still on Hold: Fed held steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at January 28th meeting — no cuts expected until mid-year at earliest. Next FOMC meeting March 17-18 — markets see less than one in five chance of a cut. Two Fed governors dissented in January — wanted a 25 basis point cut. Internal tension continues. Inflation still above target at 2.7% annualized in December — keeping the Fed cautious. Unemployment ticking up to 4.4% — creating competing pressures. Higher-for-longer environment means floating rate debt from 2021-2022 remains stressed. Office assets still facing upward pressure on cap rates — structural challenges persist. 💡 Investor Takeaway: At 4.14%, the 10-year is in the sweet spot for CRE deal flow. Transaction momentum is real: 30% Q4 growth, full year up 23%. Don't wait for rate cuts — stability is the story. Underwrite deals that work at current rates — don't bank on Fed relief. Multifamily and industrial leading the charge. Office still requires caution. Thanks for tuning in. See you tomorrow! Don't forget to Like, Share and Subscribe! Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter. #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #10YearTreasury #InterestRates #FederalReserve #RealEstateInvesting #CapRates #Multifamily #Industrial #FOMC #PropertyInvesting #RealEstate2026 #InvestorTips #CREInvesting #TreasuryYield #RateWatch #MarketUpdate #WealthBuilding #DealFlow #TransactionVolume