Episode 39: Navigating 2025's Housing Market: Chris Beard on Interest Rates, Tariffs, and the Million-Home Opportunity

Tony Misura sits down with Chris Beard, Building Products Research Director at John Burns Research and Consulting, for a comprehensive look at what's really happening in housing and building materials markets heading into 2026. Chris breaks down the numbers that matter: why single-family starts are down mid-single digits while multifamily is strengthening, what the "magic" 5.5% mortgage rate means for buyer behavior, and why production builders are willing to pay a $130 premium per thousand board feet for Canadian lumber despite new tariffs. From the "wall of wood" created by preemptive inventory builds to the lock-in effect keeping 72% of homeowners in sub-5% mortgages, this episode cuts through the uncertainty of 2025's policy-driven volatility. Chris shares bullish forecasts through 2034 based on demographic trends, explains why the remodeling market could see major tailwinds from falling HELOC rates, and offers practical advice on building localized market dashboards. Whether you're a dealer, distributor, manufacturer, or builder planning your 2026 strategy, this conversation provides the data-driven insights you need to navigate labor shortages, tariff impacts, and regional market variations. Key Topics: Mortgage rates, Canadian lumber tariffs, household formation trends, multifamily construction, labor inflation, existing home sales, remodeling market opportunities, and regional market forecasting. Guest: Chris Beard, Building Products Research Director, John Burns Research and Consulting Length: 46 minutes