Episode #39 - Thinking in Bets

We kick off the week about “Thinking in Bets”, where leadership decisions aren’t about chasing the mythical “right call”, it’s about making smarter, adaptable bets under uncertainty. Backed by research from Kahneman and Tversky on cognitive biases, Annie Duke’s work on “resulting,” Bezos’ one-way/two-way door principle, and the Good Judgment Project’s findings on superforecasters, this episode sets the stage for a practical, evidence-driven playbook you can use to sharpen your decision process and outlast the illusion of certainty.References:1) Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bets2) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.11243) Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation: https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.54.4.5694) Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions: https://doi.org/10.1177/17456916155777945) Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2374Music Credit: Switch It Up, performed by Silent Partner, from the YouTube Studio Audio Library