Episode 412: Market Turmoil, Guardrails Withdrawals, Useful UK Sites, Bonds, Small Caps And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 4, 2025

In this episode we answer emails from Ron, Iain, an Anonymous Visitor and Mr. Data.  We discuss Ron's generosity and his variable or guardrails withdrawal strategy, some helpful British website references, what we use bonds for in these portfolio and how the TSP G fund fits into that, and small cap growth vs. small cap value stocks.  And some notes on recent market turmoil.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterPortfolio Charts Retirement Spending:  Retirement Spending – Portfolio ChartsMonevator Quilt Chart:  Asset allocation quilt – the winners and losers of the last 10 years - Monevator Just ETF (UK) Page:  ETF portfolios made simpleShannon's Demon Article:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Market crashes reveal the true value of diversification. While Professor Jeremy Siegel called last week's events "the worst policy mistake in US economic history in the last 95 years," properly structured portfolios weathered the storm remarkably well.The recent market plunge shows exactly why risk parity strategies work—the S&P 500 dropped 13.3%, NASDAQ fell 17.2%, but our All Seasons portfolio remained flat for the year. This divergence creates powerful rebalancing opportunities that can enhance long-term returns.Looking at performance across asset classes reveals a classic recession pattern: falling stocks, rising treasury bonds, and initial panic selling followed by differentiated recoveries. Long-term Treasury bonds (VGLT) are up 7.2% for the year, demonstrating their crucial diversification role during market stress. Gold, despite some wobbles, remains up 15.7% year-to-date.The mathematical principle behind this outperformance is what Claude Shannon described as "Shannon's Demon"—when assets perform differently at different times, periodic rebalancing allows the portfolio to outperform any individual component. This explains why we maintain exposure to both growth and value styles, rather than trying to predict which will outperform next.For DIY investors, this market correction offers valuable lessons about portfolio construction. Understanding why you hold each asset—whether for stability, income, or diversification—is far more important than chasing yields. The Golden Butterfly portfolio, with its balanced approach across stocks, bonds, and gold, is only down 1.78% year-to-date while continuing to provide consistent distributions.Want to learn more about building resilient portfolios? Visit riskparityradio.com for sample portfolios and detailed resources, or email your questions to [email protected] the show