Episode 43: Rate Stability Unlocks Deal Flow — 10-Year Holds at 4.05%

Welcome back to What's Hot What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Wednesday, February 18th, 2026. Today — the 10-Year Treasury and what it's signaling for CRE. 🔥 What's Hot — Treasury Stability Is Here: The 10-year yield sits at 4.05% today — down from 4.47% a year ago. Long-term rates have stabilized in the 4.0 to 4.25% range since mid-2025. This is the sweet spot for CRE deal flow. Cap rate spreads are attractive — with Treasuries at 4.05% and average multifamily cap rates in the mid-5s, spreads are holding above 150 basis points. Investors are seeing value again. Transaction velocity is improving — CRE deal volume is now matching or exceeding 2019 levels. Sidelined capital is coming back. Buyer sentiment is turning — the U.S. shows the strongest net intention to buy commercial real estate globally. Price discovery is clearing. Bid-ask spreads are narrowing. Fed is on hold — and markets are pricing that in. The FOMC held rates at 3.5-3.75% in January. Markets see less than one-in-five chance of a cut at the March meeting. Stability is the story — not cuts. ❄️ What's Not — Headwinds Remain: Rate cut expectations have faded. At the start of the year, markets priced in two cuts for 2026. Now — maybe one, if inflation cooperates. Don't underwrite deals expecting rate relief. Long-end volatility remains a risk — any inflation surprise could push the 10-year back toward 4.5%. Tariff uncertainty and federal debt concerns are keeping bond vigilantes on edge. Floating rate borrowers still under pressure — those with 2021 and 2022 vintage debt on floating rate are still feeling the pain. Higher-for-longer is real. 💡 Why It Matters: It's not about rate cuts. It's about rate stability. And we have it. The 4.0 to 4.25% range is workable for most CRE deals. Lenders are active. Debt markets are competitive. Cap rates are compressing modestly — 15 to 25 basis points expected this year. The market is transitioning from price discovery to deal execution. That's the shift. 🎯 Investor Takeaway: Underwrite deals that work at current rates — don't bank on Fed relief. Treasury stability in the 4.0 to 4.25% range unlocks deal flow. Cap rate spreads are attractive — especially in multifamily and industrial. Watch for inflation surprises that could push yields higher. This is an execution market — not a waiting market. Thanks for tuning in. See you tomorrow! Don't forget to Like, Share and Subscribe! Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter. #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #10YearTreasury #InterestRates #FederalReserve #CapRates #FOMC #TreasuryYield #RateWatch #DealFlow #TransactionVolume #Multifamily #Industrial #RealEstateInvesting #MarketUpdate #RealEstate2026 #InvestorTips #CashFlow #PropertyInvesting #WealthBuilding